Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (2-0)

The Steelers are in the better spot here. The Panthers have to travel to Baltimore next week, while the Steelers just have to deal with Tampa Bay in Pittsburgh. Baltimore isn’t an incredible opponent, but the Panthers will still be underdogs, while the Steelers will be heavy favorites. Teams are 104-68 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 67-97 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road underdogs.

Combining the two, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, non-divisional road underdogs are 31-19 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites when their opponent will next be non-divisional road underdogs. The Steelers are also road underdogs after a road loss, after losing in Baltimore last week. Teams cover in that spot at about a 65% rate historically.

However, we’re getting no line value with the Steelers as mere 3.5 point underdogs here in Carolina. This suggests that the Steelers are only a half point worse than the Panthers, which isn’t true. While the Steelers once again look like a middling football team, the Panthers have looked very impressive early in the season, winning on the road without Cam Newton week 1 (even if it was in Tampa Bay) and then winning by double digits at home against a very solid Detroit team last week in Newton’s return.

The Panthers were one of the best teams in the league last season, going 12-4 and finishing 4^th in rate of moving the chains differential at 7.51%. I thought they were in for a serious decline this season after losing 4 of their top 5 defensive backs, their top two offensive linemen, and every wide receiver who caught a pass for them, while dealing with a banged up Cam Newton, but they’re one team that has exceeded my expectations to the point where I’ve changed my mind on them.

The trio of Kelvin Benjamin, Jason Avant, and Jerricho Cotchery has proven to be at least comparable to the trio of Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, and Ted Ginn. Their replacement defensive backs have fit well in Sean McDermott’s scheme and their new offensive line has also held up. Last week, they were able to do it without Greg Hardy, who remains out pending the results of his domestic abuse appeal, showing their tremendous defensive line depth. They won’t be the same 12-4 team they were last season, but I could see them competing for a playoff spot and winning about 10 games. It’s a credit to GM Dave Gettleman, Head Coach Ron Rivera, and defensive coordinator Sean McDermott. I’m still taking the Steelers here at +3.5 because I’d be terrified of a field goal win by the Panthers if I picked them, especially with all the trends on their side, but I’m not confident at all.

Carolina Panthers 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3.5

Confidence: None

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