San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

With the exception of last week’s epic debacle against the Bears, the 49ers generally are good at beating up on weaker opponents. They are 24-13 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since 2011. Last season, against teams that finished .500 or worse, Colin Kaepernick completed 110 of 177 (62.2%) for 1553 yards (8.69 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns on 45 carries in 8 games.

They won all 8 of those games by an average of 20.13 points per game and covered 7 times. They beat up on a terrible Dallas team week 1 in Dallas by a score of 28-13, before last week’s game, a 28-20 home loss as 7 point favorites, but I think last week is probably the fluke rather than the new normal for this team. They’re highly unlikely to lose the turnover battle by 4 again considering the average team that puts up a -4 turnover differential in a week has an average turnover margin of about +0.1 the following week since 2008 and are 75-52 ATS in that time period.

The Cardinals are 2-0, but they fit that definition of a bad team, hence why the 49ers are favorite by a field goal here on the road. The Cardinals barely beat the Chargers week 1 at home and then last week looked underwhelming in a victory over the lowly Giants. Despite their record, it’s possible that no team has lost more from last season to this season than the Cardinals.

On the offensive side of the ball, Carson Palmer is out indefinitely leaving veteran journeyman Drew Stanton to make his 6^th career start this week. He completed 14 of 29 for 169 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions against the Giants last week, and the 49ers have a significantly better defense than the Giants so the career 63.5 QB rating quarterback could really struggle. They’ve added Jared Veldheer and given Andre Ellington a bigger role on offense, but the latter is dealing with a bad foot that has him less than 100%.

Defensively is where they’ve lost the most. John Abraham, Darnell Dockett, and Daryl Washington are all out for the season, the first two with injury and the latter with suspension. Karlos Dansby is also gone and Tyrann Mathieu is still not close to 100% after playing just 5 snaps in his return from a torn ACL last week. They’ve added first round pick Deone Buchanan and free agent flier Antonio Cromartie, but this stop unit is nowhere near as talented on paper as they were last season.

I like the 49ers’ chances of proving last week was a fluke and getting a big win here in Arizona by more than a field goal. Not only was last week likely a fluke, but the 49ers almost always bounce back in a big way in the Jim Harbaugh era. Since 2011, the 49ers are 7-3-1 ATS following a loss. Straight up, they are 9-2 ATS and outscore opponents by an average of 12.64 points per game. They should be the right side here once again as long as the line stays at a field goal.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Arizona Cardinals 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3

Confidence: Medium

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