Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1)
The Packers fell flat in Detroit last week in a 19-7 loss, but things should be different this week in Chicago for a number of reasons. One, Detroit is a significantly better team than Chicago, an opinion I’ve held since the pre-season. The Bears have exceeded my expectations a little (their win in San Francisco was the most impressive), but there’s no reason for me to change my opinion on Chicago and Detroit. This will be an easier game for the Packers, who are undervalued because people haven’t really caught on to how good the Lions are. There’s no reason the Packers should be underdogs here, even if it’s only as underdogs of one point.
Speaking of the Packers being underdogs, that fact leads into the 2nd reason that this week should go differently for the Packers. They’re in a much better spot this week as they are divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites (against Minnesota next week), while the Bears are going to Carolina next week. Teams are 58-41 ATS as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites since 2002. On top of that, teams are 93-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 93-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008.
The Packers are also road underdogs after a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 172-178 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 239-344 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.20 points per game.
Even if this line switches to Green Bay favored by a point or two before game time, nullifying all of those trends, I still like the Packers. They’re still in their 2nd straight road game either way and they’re still undervalued and should be able to win by a field goal or more. Other trends help them out, as Rodgers is 18-10 ATS off of a loss in his career. Rodgers is also 10-2 ATS and straight up against the Bears in his career since 2008. This is my Pick of the Week.
Green Bay Packers 27 Chicago Bears 20 Upset Pick +100
Pick against spread: Green Bay +1
Confidence: Pick of the Week
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