Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1)
The Jaguars are one of three remaining 0-3 teams. They have the worst point differential in the NFL at -75. The second worst is Tampa Bay at -50 and the majority of that (-42) came last week. The third worst is St. Louis at -29. The Jaguars are also dead last in rate of moving the chains differential at -20.08% and no one else is worse than -9.23% (Buffalo). They’ve been outscored 119-27 over the past 10 quarters after jumping out to a 17-0 lead in Philadelphia week 1. They’re easily the worst team in the NFL.
So why do I like them this week? Well, for one thing, this line is way too high at 13.5. People have caught on to the fact that Jacksonville is terrible and the line seems to be overcompensating for that. The Chargers are a solid team, but they don’t deserve to be favorites of this many points against anyway. This line should be closer to 10. Teams are 40-21 ATS since 2002 after back-to-back losses of 21 or more. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Jaguars should be all three this week.
The Jaguars looked decent in the 2nd half against Indianapolis last week after 3rd overall pick Blake Bortles took over at halftime. They actually outscored the Colts 17-14 in the 2nd half. Obviously, they were playing against a Colts team that didn’t really care anymore after jumping out to a 30-0 point lead in the first half and the Jaguars’ problems are way deeper than just the quarterback situation. Bortles is a rookie quarterback and not their savior. However, he looked a lot better than Chad Henne, completing 14 of 24 for 223 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. With him under center, I don’t feel uncomfortable picking the Jaguars here as 13.5 point underdogs in a good spot.
This would be a bigger play, but there are two things holding me back. One is that the Jaguars are just so bad. I expect them to give 110% out of embarrassment and for the Chargers to overlook them, but they could still get blown out considering they have 14 double digit losses in their last 20 games. Two, the Jaguars will probably be 3+ point home underdogs next week against Pittsburgh. Teams are 36-77 ATS before being 5+ point home underdogs since 2010 because apparently bad teams don’t usually cover the spread. The Chargers are my survivor pick this week, but I like the Jaguars against the spread.
San Diego Chargers 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Survivor Pick
Pick against spread: Jacksonville +13.5
Confidence: Medium
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