New York Giants (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2)

The Redskins actually lead the league in rate of moving the chains differential by a wide margin at 14.08%, but most of that game in that domination against the terrible Jaguars in which they had a rate of moving the chains differential of 39.09%, best by any team in a single game this season. They were solid against the Texans and the Eagles, posting rate of moving the chains differentials of 4.41% and 3.73% respectively in those 2 games, but they’re not quite as good as that 14.08% number suggests.

They might also not be completely focused for this game because they have a game against the Seahawks up next. Teams are 21-37 ATS as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional hoe underdogs since 1989. The Giants, meanwhile, have the Falcons in New York up next, which isn’t nearly as big of a distraction. The Giants are also 20-12 ATS as divisional underdogs since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), including 15-7 ATS as road divisional underdogs. As long as this line is above 3, I’m grabbing the points.

Washington Redskins 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Low

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