Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
Ordinarily, I’d be all over the 49ers here considering how good they’ve been as big favorites and how good they’ve been off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. Since 2011, the 49ers are 7-4-1 ATS off of a loss and 9-3 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.83 points per game. They’re also 24-14 ATS as 3+ point favorites over that time period. However, the 49ers fell flat as big favorites two weeks ago at home over the Bears and last week they fell flat in Arizona as big favorites off of a loss.
The 49ers are just missing so much that they’re a shell of their former selves. Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman, Tramaine Brock and Glenn Dorsey are out on the defensive side of the ball and, as a result, this once dominant defense is allowing opponents to move the chains at an 81.91% rate, easily worst in the NFL. The offense has been good despite missing right tackle Anthony Davis, as they’ve moved the chains at a 78.31% rate, 4th in the NFL, but they’re still not playing well as a team, ranking 24th in differential. I’m not sure if I want to bet them heavily in this situation as I normally would as a result. The Eagles are also in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites as teams are 66-48 ATS in that spot since 2010.
I’m still taking the 49ers here and predicting them to bounce back for the 2nd straight week and cover for the 3rd straight week because of those aforementioned team specific trends. The Eagles are missing significant guys too with right tackle Lane Johnson and left guard Evan Mathis out with suspension and injury respectively and now center Jason Kelce also going down. It’s also telling that the Eagles are 5.5 point underdogs here (up from 4.5 point underdogs to start the week) even with the public all over the Eagles. This seems like a trap bet as the Eagles aren’t quite as good as their record. They’re the first 3-0 team in NFL history to overcome a double digit deficit in each of their first 3 games and their rate of moving the chains differential is just 16th at 0.68% (73.83% for their offense, 73.15% for their opponents). I’m going to go the other way of the trap bet and take the 49ers, but I’m not that confident.
San Francisco 49ers 27 Philadelphia Eagles 20
Pick against spread: San Francisco -5
Confidence: Low
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