What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	NO	83	10	3	11	4	0	0	83.78%
2	WAS	79	10	5	12	3	3	0	79.46%
3	IND	76	10	6	10	4	3	0	78.90%
4	SF	58	7	4	9	4	1	0	78.31%
5	DAL	71	7	7	8	7	0	0	78.00%
6	BAL	74	6	9	9	3	2	0	77.67%
7	ARZ	67	5	9	9	3	0	0	77.42%
8	DEN	63	9	3	16	2	0	0	77.42%
9	SEA	65	10	5	12	3	1	1	77.32%
10	ATL	73	11	5	11	8	1	0	77.06%
11	CHI	65	8	4	14	4	0	0	76.84%
12	CLE	65	8	6	16	0	0	0	76.84%
13	KC	66	8	4	12	5	2	0	76.29%
14	SD	62	7	6	15	1	1	0	75.00%
15	DET	62	6	7	9	6	1	0	74.73%
16	PIT	65	6	8	13	4	0	0	73.96%
17	PHI	70	9	9	14	5	0	0	73.83%
18	NYG	66	7	3	13	7	3	0	73.74%
19	CIN	62	8	11	12	1	1	0	73.68%
20	STL	61	4	8	9	6	1	0	73.03%
21	HOU	56	6	6	12	4	1	0	72.94%
22	GB	58	6	4	13	3	2	2	72.73%
23	CAR	59	6	8	16	2	0	0	71.43%
24	NYJ	60	6	7	13	6	2	0	70.21%
25	MIA	66	5	8	14	5	5	0	68.93%
26	TEN	59	4	7	15	4	2	1	68.48%
27	NE	57	5	8	15	2	4	0	68.13%
28	TB	45	5	2	13	9	0	0	67.57%
29	MIN	48	4	6	14	4	1	0	67.53%
30	OAK	47	4	3	17	5	0	0	67.11%
31	BUF	46	4	10	14	1	2	1	64.10%
32	JAX	44	5	5	21	5	2	0	59.76%

 

Defense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	WAS	46	5	5	18	3	1	0	65.38%
2	NE	56	4	8	12	8	1	0	67.42%
3	CHI	55	5	9	9	8	2	0	68.18%
4	DET	50	5	3	16	3	2	1	68.75%
5	BAL	52	4	10	12	3	0	0	69.14%
6	MIA	56	8	8	14	4	2	0	69.57%
7	CIN	67	4	5	14	7	3	1	70.30%
8	NYJ	53	7	5	18	2	0	0	70.59%
9	KC	61	6	8	16	0	2	0	72.04%
10	SD	54	6	3	13	3	3	1	72.29%
11	MIN	58	5	6	15	2	1	0	72.41%
12	ATL	61	8	6	13	7	0	0	72.63%
13	TEN	66	7	7	13	5	2	0	73.00%
14	CAR	62	6	5	13	6	1	0	73.12%
15	PHI	70	9	8	15	4	2	0	73.15%
16	BUF	72	5	5	15	5	3	0	73.33%
17	OAK	61	6	9	12	2	1	0	73.63%
18	ARZ	60	6	2	14	5	2	0	74.16%
19	SEA	65	7	5	15	3	1	1	74.23%
20	HOU	68	6	3	12	7	2	0	75.51%
21	NYG	61	7	8	10	3	1	0	75.56%
22	CLE	73	8	7	14	4	1	0	75.70%
23	IND	66	9	6	14	4	0	0	75.76%
24	TB	65	9	8	10	5	0	0	76.29%
25	DAL	58	7	3	10	5	2	0	76.47%
26	PIT	68	7	8	13	2	0	0	76.53%
27	NO	64	6	8	12	1	0	0	76.92%
28	DEN	78	8	6	12	3	3	1	77.48%
29	GB	65	8	5	9	5	1	0	78.49%
30	STL	55	8	6	8	3	0	0	78.75%
31	JAX	83	12	7	12	3	2	0	79.83%
32	SF	69	8	4	8	5	0	0	81.91%

 

Overall

1	WAS	14.08%
2	CHI	8.66%
3	BAL	8.53%
4	NO	6.86%
5	DET	5.98%
6	ATL	4.43%
7	KC	4.25%
8	CIN	3.39%
9	ARZ	3.26%
10	IND	3.14%
11	SEA	3.09%
12	SD	2.71%
13	DAL	1.53%
14	CLE	1.14%
15	NE	0.72%
16	PHI	0.68%
17	DEN	-0.06%
18	NYJ	-0.38%
19	MIA	-0.63%
20	CAR	-1.69%
21	NYG	-1.82%
22	HOU	-2.57%
23	PIT	-2.57%
24	SF	-3.60%
25	TEN	-4.52%
26	MIN	-4.88%
27	STL	-5.72%
28	GB	-5.77%
29	OAK	-6.52%
30	TB	-8.72%
31	BUF	-9.23%
32	JAX	-20.08%

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