Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

The Buccaneers were blown out in Atlanta last week 56-14. A similar thing should happen this week in Pittsburgh right? Not necessarily. Teams are 45-24 ATS since 2002 coming off of 35+ point losses. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Buccaneers should be all three this week as a result of last week. It’s also really hard to get blown out in back-to-back weeks. The Buccaneers aren’t as bad as they looked last week. They’re not good, but they don’t deserve to be 7.5 point underdogs here in Pittsburgh so I’m going to fade the public and the overreaction and go with the Buccaneers and the aforementioned trend.

The Buccaneers will have had 10 days to get right before this game, which should help them a lot. Michael Johnson and Gerald McCoy, two of their best defensive players, return to a defensive line that needs them badly. Running back Doug Martin is also expected to return. Meanwhile, on the Steelers’ side, they lost 3 defensive starters Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, and Ike Taylor last week in the victory over Carolina, which will hurt them this week.

Mike Glennon is also expected to start in the absence of the injured Josh McCown and that could be an upgrade. Glennon looked decent last season, completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.27 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while Josh McCown has been a career journeyman backup for most of his career and has generally proved that this season, completing 63.2% of his passes for an average of 6.18 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Glennon looked decent in relief of McCown last week, completing 17 of 24 for 121 yards and a touchdown and should be better now with a week and a half of practice with the first team.

There are some trends that go against the Buccaneers, who go to New Orleans next week. They’re likely to be double digit underdogs next week and teams are 39-81 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Steelers have a much easier game next week against the Jaguars. Teams are 70-46 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites. I still like the Buccaneers’ bounce back chances though.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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