Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Baltimore is usually an auto-bet at home as long as they aren’t big favorites. The Ravens are 42-10 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 20-11 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdog. To make thing worse, the Panthers are missing a lot. After losing essentially their entire secondary and receiving corps in the off-season, as well as their top two offensive linemen, the Panthers have now lost Greg Hardy, arguably their top defensive player, to a team imposed suspension and they may be down to their 4^th string running back. Hardy’s absence wasn’t noticeable in a home win over the Lions, but it certainly was when the Steelers moved the ball up and down the field with ease in a 37-19 win.

However, the Panthers are in a better spot here as Baltimore has to go to Indianapolis next week while the Panthers have a home game against the Bears. Teams are 106-69 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 68-99 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining those, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008 and 54-37 since 2002 when all three games are non-divisional. It’s essentially the reverse of last week for Carolina, when they were going to Baltimore and Pittsburgh had Tampa Bay next, part of the reason why the Panthers looked so bad last week. It’s not enough for me to take the Panthers, but I’m not confident in the Ravens at all.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3

Confidence: None

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