Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1)
Both of these teams started a surprising 2-0 after finishing with a top-10 pick last season and then fell flat in their 3rd game of the season last week to fall to 2-1. However, one team is significantly better than the other. While the Bills are moving the chains at a 64.10% rate, 31st in the NFL, while allowing opponents to move the chains at a 73.33% rate, 16th in the NFL, the Texans are 21st (72.94%) and 20th (75.54%) respectively. That means that, while the Texans aren’t that impressive with a rate of moving the chains differential of -2.57% (22nd in the NFL), they’re better than the Bills who are -9.23% (31st).
That being said, it’s not a high confidence pick on the Texans, even as they are mere 3 point home favorites. The Texans aren’t in a good spot as they have to travel to Dallas next week, where they will likely be underdogs. Teams are 68-99 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Bills have to go to Detroit next week, so they have some upcoming distractions, but the Texans are still in the worse spot. The Texans are the pick, but I’m not that confident.
Houston Texans 17 Buffalo Bills 9
Pick against spread: Houston -3
Confidence: Low
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