Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

Atlanta dominated last week at home against the Buccaneers, winning 56-14, moving the chains at an 82.05% rate, as opposed to 47.83% for the Buccaneers. However, now they go on the road to Minnesota and they haven’t had nearly as much success on the road in the Matt Ryan era. Since Matt Ryan and Mike Smith came in 2008, they are 39-14 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 5.91 points per game, as opposed to 24-27 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game. They were blown out in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago. Minnesota isn’t as good as Cincinnati, but they don’t need to blow them out to cover this spread as 3 point underdogs.

The Falcons also will have had 10 days of basking in their own glory after last week’s blowout victory over the Buccaneers. Road favorites are 9-18 ATS after a Thursday Night win of 10 or more since 1989. This line has shifted 4.5 points since last week, from 1.5 points in favor of Minnesota to 3 points in favor of Atlanta. Obviously, some line movement would make sense after that type of blowout win, but this seems excessive. This suggests that the Falcons would be about 9 point favorites in Atlanta, even before you take into account the home and away disparity for the Falcons. Considering the Buccaneers were 6.5 point underdogs in Atlanta last week, that seems excessive. And yet, the public is obviously still all over Atlanta. It’s not a high confidence pick, but I’m going to fade the public and take Teddy Bridgewater in his NFL debut.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Minnesota +3

Confidence: Low

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