Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at New York Giants (2-2)

The Falcons’ road woes are well documented and they reared their head again last week as the Falcons lost to the Vikings and rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota, a week after blowing out the Buccaneers 56-14 on Thursday Night Football. Now they are once again on the road in New York to play the Giants, but I expect a different result. Instead of being in their first road game, they are in their 2^nd of two road games, which makes a huge difference.

Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-46 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 173-179 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 242-349 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.22 points per game. As much as the Falcons have had road issues in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, they’ve done well in their 2nd of two road games, going 10-4 in their second straight road game, including 6-2 ATS off of a road loss. Going off of that, Matt Ryan is 23-10 ATS off of a loss in his career. This line is a huge overreaction to things that happened last week as it was a pick ’em a week ago. We’re getting a lot of value with the Falcons as this line should be 3 points at maximum. The Falcons aren’t worse than the Giants.

As much as the Falcons have issues on the road, the Giants actually have issues at home. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, the Giants are 51-38 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.12 points per game, as opposed to 49-37 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.94 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home. Going off of that, they are 6-15 ATS since 2004 as home favorites of 3.5 or more after winning on the road.

The Giants are also in a bad spot because they have to go to Philadelphia next week, while the Falcons head home and take on the Bears, a much easier and less meaningful game for them. They’re significantly less likely to be distracted for that reason. Since 2008, non-divisional road underdogs are 106-70 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites, while teams are 84-103 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. Combining the two, teams are 93-55 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 93-56 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. This is a trap spot for the Giants and I like the underdog a good amount as long as this line is past the magic number of 4.

Atlanta Falcons 24 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Atlanta +4.5

Confidence: High

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