What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	NO	103	12	5	13	7	1	0	81.56%
2	BAL	99	11	11	10	3	2	0	80.88%
3	CHI	98	10	5	14	6	1	0	80.60%
4	IND	107	15	8	14	5	3	0	80.26%
5	DAL	95	12	8	12	7	0	0	79.85%
6	KC	92	12	6	16	5	2	0	78.20%
7	ATL	96	15	5	16	10	1	0	77.62%
8	GB	79	11	6	13	3	2	2	77.59%
9	ARZ	67	5	9	9	3	0	0	77.42%
10	DEN	63	9	3	16	2	0	0	77.42%
11	SEA	65	10	5	12	3	1	1	77.32%
12	NYG	97	13	4	18	8	3	0	76.92%
13	CLE	65	8	6	16	0	0	0	76.84%
14	WAS	96	12	5	16	9	3	0	76.60%
15	PIT	92	9	10	17	5	0	0	75.94%
16	SD	81	10	10	18	1	1	0	75.21%
17	SF	78	9	8	15	5	1	0	75.00%
18	DET	79	9	9	15	6	1	0	73.95%
19	CIN	62	8	11	12	1	1	0	73.68%
20	STL	61	4	8	9	6	1	0	73.03%
21	CAR	79	7	9	20	3	0	0	72.88%
22	MIN	74	8	11	16	4	1	0	71.93%
23	MIA	90	9	9	16	8	6	0	71.74%
24	TB	66	8	4	16	10	1	0	70.48%
25	HOU	75	7	9	18	7	1	0	70.09%
26	NYJ	77	8	8	19	8	2	0	69.67%
27	PHI	81	9	9	20	9	2	0	69.23%
28	TEN	75	6	8	21	7	2	1	67.50%
29	NE	70	7	8	21	5	4	0	66.96%
30	OAK	64	6	3	23	9	1	0	66.04%
31	JAX	65	7	5	23	8	4	0	64.29%
32	BUF	63	6	11	23	3	2	1	63.30%

 

Defense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	MIA	73	10	8	20	8	3	0	68.03%	2.36%
2	DET	67	7	4	22	5	2	1	68.52%	9.59%
3	KC	74	8	8	22	3	2	0	70.09%	6.46%
4	CIN	67	4	5	14	7	3	1	70.30%	7.03%
5	NYJ	70	10	7	24	2	0	0	70.80%	4.20%
6	BUF	91	6	8	21	8	3	0	70.80%	8.11%
7	BAL	72	5	11	16	4	0	0	71.30%	2.62%
8	PHI	90	11	12	21	5	2	0	71.63%	-4.23%
9	NE	82	8	10	16	8	1	0	72.00%	3.26%
10	HOU	85	8	4	21	9	2	0	72.09%	-0.06%
11	WAS	77	11	6	23	4	1	0	72.13%	3.09%
12	NYG	78	9	8	14	9	1	0	73.11%	3.81%
13	IND	82	11	7	20	7	0	0	73.23%	1.14%
14	SD	75	8	3	15	6	5	1	73.45%	4.46%
15	CHI	76	10	11	9	8	2	0	74.14%	-0.80%
16	ARZ	60	6	2	14	5	2	0	74.16%	1.76%
17	SEA	65	7	5	15	3	1	1	74.23%	-0.21%
18	MIN	81	9	6	20	4	1	0	74.38%	5.43%
19	ATL	87	12	11	15	7	0	0	75.00%	3.39%
20	SF	80	8	4	14	9	2	0	75.21%	-5.72%
21	OAK	85	10	10	14	5	2	0	75.40%	-4.90%
22	DAL	78	9	5	12	8	3	0	75.65%	-2.45%
23	CLE	73	8	7	14	4	1	0	75.70%	3.71%
24	TEN	97	12	9	17	6	2	0	76.22%	-7.14%
25	PIT	89	10	10	16	3	1	0	76.74%	-2.01%
26	DEN	78	8	6	12	3	3	1	77.48%	-1.12%
27	TB	92	12	10	14	6	0	0	77.61%	-2.40%
28	CAR	87	11	7	14	6	1	0	77.78%	-8.72%
29	STL	55	8	6	8	3	0	0	78.75%	-5.04%
30	JAX	102	15	11	15	3	2	0	79.05%	-9.36%
31	NO	88	11	9	16	1	0	0	79.20%	-14.77%
32	GB	98	10	6	9	7	2	0	81.82%	-7.50%

 

Overall

1	BAL	9.59%
2	KC	8.11%
3	IND	7.03%
4	CHI	6.46%
5	DET	5.43%
6	WAS	4.46%
7	DAL	4.20%
8	NYG	3.81%
9	MIA	3.71%
10	CIN	3.39%
11	ARZ	3.26%
12	SEA	3.09%
13	ATL	2.62%
14	NO	2.36%
15	SD	1.76%
16	CLE	1.14%
17	DEN	-0.06%
18	SF	-0.21%
19	PIT	-0.80%
20	NYJ	-1.12%
21	HOU	-2.01%
22	PHI	-2.40%
23	MIN	-2.45%
24	GB	-4.23%
25	CAR	-4.90%
26	NE	-5.04%
27	STL	-5.72%
28	TB	-7.14%
29	BUF	-7.50%
30	TEN	-8.72%
31	OAK	-9.36%
32	JAX	-14.77%