Month: September 2014

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bills, Texans, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1)

Both of these teams started a surprising 2-0 after finishing with a top-10 pick last season and then fell flat in their 3rd game of the season last week to fall to 2-1. However, one team is significantly better than the other. While the Bills are moving the chains at a 64.10% rate, 31st in the NFL, while allowing opponents to move the chains at a 73.33% rate, 16th in the NFL, the Texans are 21st (72.94%) and 20th (75.54%) respectively. That means that, while the Texans aren’t that impressive with a rate of moving the chains differential of -2.57% (22nd in the NFL), they’re better than the Bills who are -9.23% (31st).

That being said, it’s not a high confidence pick on the Texans, even as they are mere 3 point home favorites. The Texans aren’t in a good spot as they have to travel to Dallas next week, where they will likely be underdogs. Teams are 68-99 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Bills have to go to Detroit next week, so they have some upcoming distractions, but the Texans are still in the worse spot. The Texans are the pick, but I’m not that confident.

Houston Texans 17 Buffalo Bills 9

Pick against spread: Houston -3

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

This is a tough one. On one hand, the Saints’ road struggles are well documented and they’ve been especially bad over the past two seasons. Just this season, they’ve already lost in Atlanta and Cleveland as road favorites. The Saints are 3-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season, as opposed to 8-0-1 ATS at home and I’ve had a good deal of success picking their games almost solely taking them at home and going against them on the road against the spread.

However, it seems like this line is already compensating for that, maybe overcompensating, as the Saints are mere 3 point favorites in Dallas. The Saints are a lot better than their record suggests as they could easily be 3-0. They have a positive point differential and they rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential on the strength of a dominant home offensive performance last week in which they scored 3 touchdowns on 7 drives (excluding a 14 play, 70 yard drive to end the game) and picked up 27 first downs in the process. The Saints are moving the chains at an 83.76% rate on the season, as opposed to 76.92% for their opponents, a differential of 6.86% that ranks 4th in the NFL and is comparable to their 8.12% differential from last season, which ranked 2nd. That’s despite playing 2 of 3 games on the road.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 2-1, but they’ve played 3 teams (San Francisco, Tennessee, St. Louis) that are a combined 3-6 and they could have easily lost last week in St. Louis. Their offense looks good, moving the chains at a 78.00% rate, but their opponents are moving the chains at a 76.47% rate. I know that’s actually better than the Saints defense, but it’s only three games in and the Saints are far more talented on that side of the ball so I don’t expect that to be that way at the end of the season and the Cowboys’ offense isn’t close to the Saints’ offense.

The Saints are also in a good spot before a home game against Tampa Bay. Teams are 97-74 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites, which they very well good be next week. At the end of the day, I picked the Saints to win the Super Bowl and the Cowboys to finish 4-12 at the beginning of the season. Those might both end up being wrong, but I don’t see the Saints starting 1-3, while the Cowboys start 3-1 so as long as this line is at 3, I’m comfortable taking New Orleans, even on the road.

New Orleans Saints 34 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Panthers, Ravens, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Baltimore is usually an auto-bet at home as long as they aren’t big favorites. The Ravens are 42-10 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 20-11 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdog. To make thing worse, the Panthers are missing a lot. After losing essentially their entire secondary and receiving corps in the off-season, as well as their top two offensive linemen, the Panthers have now lost Greg Hardy, arguably their top defensive player, to a team imposed suspension and they may be down to their 4th string running back. Hardy’s absence wasn’t noticeable in a home win over the Lions, but it certainly was when the Steelers moved the ball up and down the field with ease in a 37-19 win.

However, the Panthers are in a better spot here as Baltimore has to go to Indianapolis next week while the Panthers have a home game against the Bears. Teams are 106-69 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 68-99 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining those, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008 and 54-37 since 2002 when all three games are non-divisional. It’s essentially the reverse of last week for Carolina, when they were going to Baltimore and Pittsburgh had Tampa Bay next, part of the reason why the Panthers looked so bad last week. It’s not enough for me to take the Panthers, but I’m not confident in the Ravens at all.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2)

The Redskins actually lead the league in rate of moving the chains differential by a wide margin at 14.08%, but most of that game in that domination against the terrible Jaguars in which they had a rate of moving the chains differential of 39.09%, best by any team in a single game this season. They were solid against the Texans and the Eagles, posting rate of moving the chains differentials of 4.41% and 3.73% respectively in those 2 games, but they’re not quite as good as that 14.08% number suggests.

They might also not be completely focused for this game because they have a game against the Seahawks up next. Teams are 21-37 ATS as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional hoe underdogs since 1989. The Giants, meanwhile, have the Falcons in New York up next, which isn’t nearly as big of a distraction. The Giants are also 20-12 ATS as divisional underdogs since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), including 15-7 ATS as road divisional underdogs. As long as this line is above 3, I’m grabbing the points.

Washington Redskins 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, 49ers, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

Ordinarily, I’d be all over the 49ers here considering how good they’ve been as big favorites and how good they’ve been off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. Since 2011, the 49ers are 7-4-1 ATS off of a loss and 9-3 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.83 points per game. They’re also 24-14 ATS as 3+ point favorites over that time period. However, the 49ers fell flat as big favorites two weeks ago at home over the Bears and last week they fell flat in Arizona as big favorites off of a loss.

The 49ers are just missing so much that they’re a shell of their former selves. Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman, Tramaine Brock and Glenn Dorsey are out on the defensive side of the ball and, as a result, this once dominant defense is allowing opponents to move the chains at an 81.91% rate, easily worst in the NFL. The offense has been good despite missing right tackle Anthony Davis, as they’ve moved the chains at a 78.31% rate, 4th in the NFL, but they’re still not playing well as a team, ranking 24th in differential. I’m not sure if I want to bet them heavily in this situation as I normally would as a result. The Eagles are also in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites as teams are 66-48 ATS in that spot since 2010.

I’m still taking the 49ers here and predicting them to bounce back for the 2nd straight week and cover for the 3rd straight week because of those aforementioned team specific trends. The Eagles are missing significant guys too with right tackle Lane Johnson and left guard Evan Mathis out with suspension and injury respectively and now center Jason Kelce also going down. It’s also telling that the Eagles are 5.5 point underdogs here (up from 4.5 point underdogs to start the week) even with the public all over the Eagles. This seems like a trap bet as the Eagles aren’t quite as good as their record. They’re the first 3-0 team in NFL history to overcome a double digit deficit in each of their first 3 games and their rate of moving the chains differential is just 16th at 0.68% (73.83% for their offense, 73.15% for their opponents). I’m going to go the other way of the trap bet and take the 49ers, but I’m not that confident.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -5

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

The Titans were 7 point underdogs in Cincinnati last week and got blown out by the score of 33-7. Now they’re 7.5 point underdogs in Indianapolis. I think this week will go a little differently for several reasons. For one, the Colts aren’t as good as the Bengals, especially at home, where the Bengals have now covered 11 straight regular season games. The Bengals were significantly better last season, with a rate of moving the chains differential of 7.81%, as opposed to 0.70% for Indianapolis, and they’re still better this season, with a differential of 3.39% for Cincinnati as opposed to 3.14% for Indianapolis. The Colts only have 9 wins by more than a touchdown since the start of the Andrew Luck era in 2012. Their other 15 wins have come by a touchdown or less. They’ve beaten the Titans four times, but none of those wins have come by more than 8 points.

The Titans are also in a better spot this week. Last week, they were facing a Bengal team going into a bye last week and big home favorites cover about 75% of the time going into a bye. This week, they’re in a good spot, with an easier, less important game against the Browns up next. Teams are 47-33 ATS as divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. They’re going to be very focused for this one.

The Titans are also road underdogs after a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 172-178 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 239-344 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.20 points per game.  I like the Titans’ chances to keep bounce back and keep this one close.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Tennessee Titans 24

Pick against spread: Tennessee +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Steelers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

The Buccaneers were blown out in Atlanta last week 56-14. A similar thing should happen this week in Pittsburgh right? Not necessarily. Teams are 45-24 ATS since 2002 coming off of 35+ point losses. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Buccaneers should be all three this week as a result of last week. It’s also really hard to get blown out in back-to-back weeks. The Buccaneers aren’t as bad as they looked last week. They’re not good, but they don’t deserve to be 7.5 point underdogs here in Pittsburgh so I’m going to fade the public and the overreaction and go with the Buccaneers and the aforementioned trend.

The Buccaneers will have had 10 days to get right before this game, which should help them a lot. Michael Johnson and Gerald McCoy, two of their best defensive players, return to a defensive line that needs them badly. Running back Doug Martin is also expected to return. Meanwhile, on the Steelers’ side, they lost 3 defensive starters Jarvis Jones, Ryan Shazier, and Ike Taylor last week in the victory over Carolina, which will hurt them this week.

Mike Glennon is also expected to start in the absence of the injured Josh McCown and that could be an upgrade. Glennon looked decent last season, completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.27 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while Josh McCown has been a career journeyman backup for most of his career and has generally proved that this season, completing 63.2% of his passes for an average of 6.18 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Glennon looked decent in relief of McCown last week, completing 17 of 24 for 121 yards and a touchdown and should be better now with a week and a half of practice with the first team.

There are some trends that go against the Buccaneers, who go to New Orleans next week. They’re likely to be double digit underdogs next week and teams are 39-81 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Steelers have a much easier game next week against the Jaguars. Teams are 70-46 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites. I still like the Buccaneers’ bounce back chances though.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1)

The Packers fell flat in Detroit last week in a 19-7 loss, but things should be different this week in Chicago for a number of reasons. One, Detroit is a significantly better team than Chicago, an opinion I’ve held since the pre-season. The Bears have exceeded my expectations a little (their win in San Francisco was the most impressive), but there’s no reason for me to change my opinion on Chicago and Detroit. This will be an easier game for the Packers, who are undervalued because people haven’t really caught on to how good the Lions are. There’s no reason the Packers should be underdogs here, even if it’s only as underdogs of one point.

Speaking of the Packers being underdogs, that fact leads into the 2nd reason that this week should go differently for the Packers. They’re in a much better spot this week as they are divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites (against Minnesota next week), while the Bears are going to Carolina next week. Teams are 58-41 ATS as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites since 2002. On top of that, teams are 93-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 93-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008.

The Packers are also road underdogs after a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 172-178 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 239-344 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.20 points per game.

Even if this line switches to Green Bay favored by a point or two before game time, nullifying all of those trends, I still like the Packers. They’re still in their 2nd straight road game either way and they’re still undervalued and should be able to win by a field goal or more. Other trends help them out, as Rodgers is 18-10 ATS off of a loss in his career. Rodgers is also 10-2 ATS and straight up against the Bears in his career since 2008. This is my Pick of the Week.

Green Bay Packers 27 Chicago Bears 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Green Bay +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1)

The Jaguars are one of three remaining 0-3 teams. They have the worst point differential in the NFL at -75. The second worst is Tampa Bay at -50 and the majority of that (-42) came last week. The third worst is St. Louis at -29. The Jaguars are also dead last in rate of moving the chains differential at -20.08% and no one else is worse than -9.23% (Buffalo). They’ve been outscored 119-27 over the past 10 quarters after jumping out to a 17-0 lead in Philadelphia week 1. They’re easily the worst team in the NFL.

So why do I like them this week? Well, for one thing, this line is way too high at 13.5. People have caught on to the fact that Jacksonville is terrible and the line seems to be overcompensating for that. The Chargers are a solid team, but they don’t deserve to be favorites of this many points against anyway. This line should be closer to 10. Teams are 40-21 ATS since 2002 after back-to-back losses of 21 or more. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Jaguars should be all three this week.

The Jaguars looked decent in the 2nd half against Indianapolis last week after 3rd overall pick Blake Bortles took over at halftime. They actually outscored the Colts 17-14 in the 2nd half. Obviously, they were playing against a Colts team that didn’t really care anymore after jumping out to a 30-0 point lead in the first half and the Jaguars’ problems are way deeper than just the quarterback situation. Bortles is a rookie quarterback and not their savior. However, he looked a lot better than Chad Henne, completing 14 of 24 for 223 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. With him under center, I don’t feel uncomfortable picking the Jaguars here as 13.5 point underdogs in a good spot.

This would be a bigger play, but there are two things holding me back. One is that the Jaguars are just so bad. I expect them to give 110% out of embarrassment and for the Chargers to overlook them, but they could still get blown out considering they have 14 double digit losses in their last 20 games. Two, the Jaguars will probably be 3+ point home underdogs next week against Pittsburgh. Teams are 36-77 ATS before being 5+ point home underdogs since 2010 because apparently bad teams don’t usually cover the spread. The Chargers are my survivor pick this week, but I like the Jaguars against the spread.

San Diego Chargers 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +13.5

Confidence: Medium

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 4

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 83 10 3 11 4 0 0 83.78%
2 WAS 79 10 5 12 3 3 0 79.46%
3 IND 76 10 6 10 4 3 0 78.90%
4 SF 58 7 4 9 4 1 0 78.31%
5 DAL 71 7 7 8 7 0 0 78.00%
6 BAL 74 6 9 9 3 2 0 77.67%
7 ARZ 67 5 9 9 3 0 0 77.42%
8 DEN 63 9 3 16 2 0 0 77.42%
9 SEA 65 10 5 12 3 1 1 77.32%
10 ATL 73 11 5 11 8 1 0 77.06%
11 CHI 65 8 4 14 4 0 0 76.84%
12 CLE 65 8 6 16 0 0 0 76.84%
13 KC 66 8 4 12 5 2 0 76.29%
14 SD 62 7 6 15 1 1 0 75.00%
15 DET 62 6 7 9 6 1 0 74.73%
16 PIT 65 6 8 13 4 0 0 73.96%
17 PHI 70 9 9 14 5 0 0 73.83%
18 NYG 66 7 3 13 7 3 0 73.74%
19 CIN 62 8 11 12 1 1 0 73.68%
20 STL 61 4 8 9 6 1 0 73.03%
21 HOU 56 6 6 12 4 1 0 72.94%
22 GB 58 6 4 13 3 2 2 72.73%
23 CAR 59 6 8 16 2 0 0 71.43%
24 NYJ 60 6 7 13 6 2 0 70.21%
25 MIA 66 5 8 14 5 5 0 68.93%
26 TEN 59 4 7 15 4 2 1 68.48%
27 NE 57 5 8 15 2 4 0 68.13%
28 TB 45 5 2 13 9 0 0 67.57%
29 MIN 48 4 6 14 4 1 0 67.53%
30 OAK 47 4 3 17 5 0 0 67.11%
31 BUF 46 4 10 14 1 2 1 64.10%
32 JAX 44 5 5 21 5 2 0 59.76%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 WAS 46 5 5 18 3 1 0 65.38%
2 NE 56 4 8 12 8 1 0 67.42%
3 CHI 55 5 9 9 8 2 0 68.18%
4 DET 50 5 3 16 3 2 1 68.75%
5 BAL 52 4 10 12 3 0 0 69.14%
6 MIA 56 8 8 14 4 2 0 69.57%
7 CIN 67 4 5 14 7 3 1 70.30%
8 NYJ 53 7 5 18 2 0 0 70.59%
9 KC 61 6 8 16 0 2 0 72.04%
10 SD 54 6 3 13 3 3 1 72.29%
11 MIN 58 5 6 15 2 1 0 72.41%
12 ATL 61 8 6 13 7 0 0 72.63%
13 TEN 66 7 7 13 5 2 0 73.00%
14 CAR 62 6 5 13 6 1 0 73.12%
15 PHI 70 9 8 15 4 2 0 73.15%
16 BUF 72 5 5 15 5 3 0 73.33%
17 OAK 61 6 9 12 2 1 0 73.63%
18 ARZ 60 6 2 14 5 2 0 74.16%
19 SEA 65 7 5 15 3 1 1 74.23%
20 HOU 68 6 3 12 7 2 0 75.51%
21 NYG 61 7 8 10 3 1 0 75.56%
22 CLE 73 8 7 14 4 1 0 75.70%
23 IND 66 9 6 14 4 0 0 75.76%
24 TB 65 9 8 10 5 0 0 76.29%
25 DAL 58 7 3 10 5 2 0 76.47%
26 PIT 68 7 8 13 2 0 0 76.53%
27 NO 64 6 8 12 1 0 0 76.92%
28 DEN 78 8 6 12 3 3 1 77.48%
29 GB 65 8 5 9 5 1 0 78.49%
30 STL 55 8 6 8 3 0 0 78.75%
31 JAX 83 12 7 12 3 2 0 79.83%
32 SF 69 8 4 8 5 0 0 81.91%

 

Overall

1 WAS 14.08%
2 CHI 8.66%
3 BAL 8.53%
4 NO 6.86%
5 DET 5.98%
6 ATL 4.43%
7 KC 4.25%
8 CIN 3.39%
9 ARZ 3.26%
10 IND 3.14%
11 SEA 3.09%
12 SD 2.71%
13 DAL 1.53%
14 CLE 1.14%
15 NE 0.72%
16 PHI 0.68%
17 DEN -0.06%
18 NYJ -0.38%
19 MIA -0.63%
20 CAR -1.69%
21 NYG -1.82%
22 HOU -2.57%
23 PIT -2.57%
24 SF -3.60%
25 TEN -4.52%
26 MIN -4.88%
27 STL -5.72%
28 GB -5.77%
29 OAK -6.52%
30 TB -8.72%
31 BUF -9.23%
32 JAX -20.08%

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