Month: September 2014

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bills, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)

The Bills are 2-0 and they’ve been very good at home over the past two seasons, going 7-1 ATS in the city of Buffalo since the start of the 2013 season and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off of a huge win over the Seahawks (teams are 39-56 ATS as road underdogs after a win as 6+ point home underdogs) and now have to travel to the East Coast for a 1 PM ET start. However, I don’t agree with the Bills being favorites here, even as just 2.5 point favorites.

The Bills are a fraudulent 2-0. They’re moving the chains at a 62.00% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents (30th in NFL in differential), as their opponents have picked up 24 more first downs than they have in the last 2 games combined. The Chargers, meanwhile, have moved the chains at a 75.81% rate, as opposed to 74.55%, roughly the same as last season when they made the playoffs at 9-7 and finished 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.26% rate, while allowing opponents to move them at a 75.36% rate.

The Chargers are also in the better spot. The Bills have to travel to Houston next week, while the Chargers just have to deal with Jacksonville in San Diego. Houston isn’t an incredible opponent, but the Bills will still be underdogs, while the Chargers will be heavy favorites. Teams are 104-68 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 67-97 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road underdogs.

Combining the two, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, non-divisional road underdogs are 31-19 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites when their opponent will next be non-divisional road underdogs. I’m not that confident, but the Chargers should be the right side.

San Diego Chargers 24 Buffalo Bills 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-1)

The Lions looked way better week 1 in their win over the Giants than they did last week in a loss to the Panthers. Week 1, they moved the chains at an 82.76% rate, as opposed to 69.23% for the Giants and in week 2 they moved the chains 66.67% rate, as opposed to 70.97% for the Panthers. What was the difference? Well for one, caliber of opponent. The Panthers are much better than the Giants. The Packers are much closer to the Panthers in caliber than the Giants.

However, I still like the Lions here for four reasons. For one, they’re at home where they got that big week 1 victory, a 21 point domination that could have been even more of a blowout, impressive regardless of opponent. Two, the Packers haven’t really looked that good in the first 2 weeks of the season. Their week 1 blowout loss in Seattle was excusable, but they barely beat the Jets last week in Lambeau.

Their offense was much better against the Jets, moving the chains at a 77.78% rate, as opposed to 72.41% in Seattle, but their defense struggled in both cases, allowing the Seahawks to move the chains at an 85.29% rate and the weak Jets’ defense to move the chains at a 73.33% rate. I thought their defense would be better this season than last season (74.60%, 25th in the NFL) because I thought they’d be healthy, but they haven’t been and they’re missing BJ Raji, Casey Hayward, and Brad Jones to significant injuries on that side of the ball. Just because the Lions lost in Carolina to a very solid Panther team doesn’t mean they can’t bounce back at home here and defeat the Packers and their once again weak defense.

Three, Green Bay isn’t the same team on the road, more so than the average team. Since 2010, they are 29-7 and outscore opponents by an average of 10.62 points per game at home, as opposed to 21-16 and an average of 1.46 points per game on the road. Four, the Lions have no distractions on the horizon. While the Packers are in Chicago next week, the Lions have a random non-conference game against the Jets. Teams are 68-44 ATS before being road favorites of 3+ since 2012.

Part of the reason why the Lions struggled last week was probably because they had this game on deck, easily the biggest game of the season for a Detroit team trying to establish itself as a legitimate contender against a team they haven’t had a lot of recent success against (lost 15 of their last 17 against them). This is their regular season Super Bowl. I expect them to play like it and win. Further solidifying my opponent is the fact that this line continues to climb closer to 3 despite the public being all over the underdog. This has all the makings of a trap game for bettors. I’m going the other way. You should too before the line goes to 3.

Detroit Lions 34 Green Bay Packers 27

Confidence: Medium

Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5

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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

The Jaguars are terrible. They lost last week by the score of 41-10 in Washington even after the Redskins lost RG3 early in the game to injury. They allowed 41 points to a backup quarterback and on the other side of the fall, they were sacked more often (10) than they picked up the first down (8) against what has generally been a terrible defense over the past year or two. The Jaguars moved the chains at a 45.00% rate, while the Redskins moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, one of the worst performances by a team I’ve seen in a long time.

The Jaguars were awful last season too, losing 10 of 12 games by double digits and needing a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less to even get to 4-12. Those 4 wins came against opponents who finished a combined 15-49. They also ranked easily dead last in rate of moving the chains differential last season. They were dead last in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 64.19% rate. Meanwhile, their defense was 29th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.85% rate. That’s a differential of -11.66%. No one else was worse than -7.45%.

The Colts hadn’t lost more than two in a row in the Andrew Luck era before last week and now they’re 0-2, but I still like their chances of bouncing back in a big way here in Jacksonville. The Colts are still 10-1 ATS off of a loss since 2012 and the line here is only 7. In their last 19 games, they have 13 double digit losses. The Colts should be able to make that 14 double digit losses in 20 games. They have no distractions on the horizon with a home game against Tennessee up next. Teams are 40-24 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are going to San Diego next week and could easily be double digit underdogs. Teams are 39-79 before being double digit underdogs since 2010, including 55-79 as home underdogs before being double digit underdogs since 2002. Finally, 0-2 teams are 20-11 ATS as 5+ point favorites since 1989. That tells us two things. One this type of situation doesn’t happen very often. Two, when it does, it’s usually for a reason and that reason seems to be that the favorite team is still very good despite their record or their opponent is really bad (in this game, it’s both).

The Colts don’t have a ton of blowout wins in the Andrew Luck era, winning 15 of their 23 games (including playoffs) since 2012 by a touchdown or less, but they got a blowout victory (XX-XX) here in Jacksonville last year. I like the Colts’ chances of bouncing back and getting another blowout victory here, though I’d be more confident if their history of blowout wins was bigger.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -7

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-0)

The Bengals beat the Falcons 24-10 last week in Cincinnati, making it 10 straight regular season home games that they’ve not only won but covered, winning by an average of 16.1 points per game. They moved the chains at a 75.00% rate, as opposed to 64.51% for their opponents, the 4th best differential of the week. They should be able to do the same thing this week against an average at best Tennessee team. AJ Green is expected to play after missing most of last week’s blowout victory with injury.

The Bengals are also in a good spot going into a bye. They’ll be completely focused. Teams are 67-28 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorite going into a bye, including 52-17 ATS at home. Here as 7 point favorites, I really like the Bengals’ chances of covering. While the Bengals are in a good spot, the Titans aren’t as they have to go to Indianapolis next week, which is an equally big, if not bigger game. Non-divisional road underdogs are 49-77 ATS before being a divisional road underdog since 2002. This has all the makings of a blowout.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Tennessee Titans 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)

The Redskins looked very good in Kirk Cousins 2014 debut last week, as Robert Griffin went down with a significant ankle injury a few plays into what ended up being one of the most dominant performances by a team I’ve seen in a while. The Redskins moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, as opposed to 45.00% for the Jaguars. However, it was just the Jaguars so I’m still skeptical. He completed 52.3% of his passes for an average of 5.51 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 3 starts against some of the worst defenses in the league (Atlanta, Dallas, NY Giants) last season.

Will the Redskins’ continue to have success this week? I like their chances. Philadelphia doesn’t have a good defense. They looked decent against Jacksonville week 1, but they were terrible last season and they let the Colts move the chains at a 77.78% rate last week in an eventual Philadelphia win. The Eagles also haven’t been as good offensively as last season, moving the chains at a 72.97% rate despite playing Indianapolis and Jacksonville, who don’t have good defenses. They’re going to continue to miss Evan Mathis, their best offensive lineman, this week.

This should be a shoot-out and I like the Redskins chances of at least keeping it close against a Philadelphia team that has stumbled out of the gates to 2-0. The Eagles are in a hard spot as they have to go to San Francisco next week, while the Redskins are home for the Giants next week. Divisional road underdogs are 57-41 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. I’m grabbing the 6.5.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Redskins 30

Pick against spread: Washington +6.5

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)

The Falcons looked pretty good week 1 against the Saints, but they fell flat on their face in Cincinnati last week. However, I expect them to bounce back here for three reasons. One, Jake Matthews is back from injury and will take over again on the blindside. Two, the Falcons are a much better team at home. Matt Ryan is 29-19 ATS in his career, at home. On top of that, Matt Ryan is very good off of a loss, going 22-10 ATS.

This would be a bigger play, but the Buccaneers are in a good spot playing their first road game of the season week 3, as teams are 39-24 ATS in that situation since 1989. However, as long as the number is under a touchdown, I like the Falcons chances here. The Buccaneers aren’t a very good team, especially since they could be missing both Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson from a solid, but top heavy defensive unit. The Falcons are a good team, as long as they’re at home and I give them the edge here in a bounce back game on a short week on Thursday Night.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: Atlanta -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)

The Saints are 0-2, but I’m not too worried about them. If one of their offensive players had been able to tackle Tashaun Gipson on his eventual pick 6, there’s a very good chance they’d be 1-1 right now and heading home to face the Vikings as at least 12 point favorites. They weren’t able to do that and they lost as a result, but both of their first two games were very close and I’m not going to completely throw out my pre-season evaluation of this team just because of a few plays that didn’t go their way.

We’re getting a ton of line value with them as a result of public overreaction. The Saints as just 9.5 point home favorites is stealing considering how good they are at home. The Saints are 31-10 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 16-0-1 ATS at home over their last 16 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 17 of those games by an average of about 20.8 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. They should be able to win by double digits here against an average at best Vikings team.

As I mentioned, this line is an overreaction. The Saints are moving the chains at an 81.81% rate, as opposed to 80.28% for their opponents. 0-2 teams are 20-11 ATS as 5+ point favorites since 1989. That tells us two things. One this type of situation doesn’t happen very often. Two, when it does, it’s usually for a reason and that reason seems to be that the favorite team is still very good despite their record. Finally, on top of that, Drew Brees usually bounces back well. He’s 18-5 ATS off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline since 2008. He didn’t last week on the road, but he’s 13-2 at home in that situation. This is my pick of the week.

New Orleans Saints 34 Minnesota Vikings 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New Orleans -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)

The Chiefs had the fewest adjusted games lost last season. Now they’ve already lost two of their best players (Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito) for the season with torn Achilles. On offense, Dwayne Bowe is back from suspension, but Donald Stephenson remains suspended and now Jeff Allen is out for the season on an offensive line that was already thin after losing 31 games of starting experience from the 2013 team. Their loss at home to Tennessee was probably a sign of things to come, now that they have a way tougher schedule, they won’t be able to dominate the turnover battle as much, and they simply aren’t as talented as they were last season thanks to injuries and off-season losses.

However, I think this line at 12 is too big. The Broncos aren’t the same offense as they were last season when they just ran through everyone in blowout fashion. Eric Decker is gone. Wes Welker is still suspended. Peyton Manning is highly unlikely to repeat last season, especially with a tougher schedule and at age 38. I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Chiefs or anything, but I’m going to grab the points and hope they can keep it within 10 or so and catch the Broncos looking forward to a Super Bowl rematch in Seattle next week.

Denver Broncos 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against spread: Kansas City +12

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chargers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Diego Chargers (1-0)

I really hate to go against the Seahawks. They were obviously Super Bowl champs last year and deserving ones at that and now they return with their same young core. They looked every bit as good as they always had last week, beating the Packers 36-16 in a game that could have been even more of a blowout. They moved the chains at an 85.29% rate, as opposed to 72.41% for the Packers, giving them the 2nd best differential of the week last week against a Green Bay team that very well could still be destined for big things.

However, they’re not at home now and they don’t have the crazy crowd pumped off of the ring ceremony on their side. This could very well be a big hangover game for them after last season and after last season. I also feel like this line is a little overinflated in San Diego against a Charger team that is at least average. The public is still all over the 6 point favorite Seahawks here and when in doubt fade the public. I wish I was getting a few more points to play with and I’m not confident at all, but the Chargers are my pick here.

Seattle Seahawks 20 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against spread: San Diego +6

Confidence: None

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