Month: September 2014

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)

The Buccaneers are in a bad spot here with a Thursday Night game against the Falcons on deck. Teams are 14-30 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a divisional Thursday Night game. I also think we’re getting some line value with the Rams. The Buccaneers aren’t really that good. They didn’t look good at all last week, losing at home to Derek Anderson and the Panthers. They’re also really banged up with both Adrian Clayborn and Michael Johnson out for this one and Doug Martin likely to be less than 100% even if he plays.

They could easily finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover only about a quarter of the time as favorites of 6 or more. The Rams didn’t look good last week, but they don’t deserve to be underdogs of this much in Tampa Bay. No one really does, with the exception of maybe Jacksonville. People are overreacting to how bad they looked last week. Some people had this as a surprise playoff team before Sam Bradford got hurt and now all of a sudden they’re seen as maybe the worst team in the NFL.

Realistically, they are and have always been somewhere in between. Bradford’s loss isn’t that big of a deal because Shaun Hill is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. He wasn’t fantastic last week, completing 8 of 13 for 81 yards and an interception before going down with a thigh injury, but in his career he’s completed 61.9% of his passes for an average of 6.68 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. He’s 34 and hasn’t played a lot since 2010, but he’s still a solid backup. The Rams should finish around 5-11 or 6-10 and I don’t think they’re that much worse than the Buccaneers. I’m not that confident in the Rams because I don’t know if Hill is going to play or be 100% and Austin Davis looked awful last week, but they should be the right side.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Colts, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

The Eagles were down 17-0 early against the Jaguars last week at home, before coming back and winning 34-17. Their offense looked solid again, as it did last season with Nick Foles, but their defense continued to struggle. This line suggests these two teams are even, but I don’t think that’s the case right now as the Eagles’ offensive line is falling apart. Lane Johnson is still suspended. Allen Barbre, his replacement, is now out with an injury. Meanwhile, left guard Evan Mathis, one of the best offensive linemen in the league, was put on injured reserve with intent to return and will miss a significant period of time. The Eagles’ defense will continue to struggle and the offense won’t be as good with the offensive line banged up.

The Colts are also in the better spot here. Teams are 52-24 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites (in Jacksonville next week) since 2008. The Colts are also very good off of a loss and at home in the Andrew Luck era. They are 10-0 ATS off of a loss since Luck was drafted in 2012 and 11-5 ATS at home in that same time period. I like the Colts’ chances of beating a banged up Eagles team here in the first Monday Night Football game in Indianapolis in the Andrew Luck era.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Browns, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)

Ordinarily, I don’t like to pick the Saints on the road. I was 15-2-1 ATS picking Saints games this year and it would be 15-1-2 if I had gotten -3 in the 49ers game and not -3.5, in an eventual New Orleans win by 3. I did that by blindly picking them at home and almost blindly picking against them on the road, only picking them in Chicago as 1 point favorites because I correctly believed the Bears to be overrated at that point. The Saints went 7-0-1 ATS at home last season, but they are 2-8-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Here they are 6.5 point favorites on the road in Cleveland and the public is all over the Saints, which makes me want to take the Browns.

However, I have a hard time taking the Browns without Jordan Cameron against a team like the Saints that, for all their road struggles, is still one of the most talented in the NFL. Drew Brees is also very good off of a loss in his career as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, going 18-5 ATS in that situation since 2008. On top of that, teams are better in their 2nd straight road game than their 1st one. Since 2008, teams are 434-615 in their first road game, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game. Meanwhile, teams are 181-205 in their second road game, getting outscored by an average of 0.66 points per game. Finally, the Saints have no distractions on the horizon with a home game against the Vikings up next. Teams are 44-32 ATS since 2008 as road favorites before being double digit home favorites. I’m not confident at all, but the Saints are my pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Giants, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

The Cardinals were one of my overrated teams coming into the season and I still think that’s true, even after their 1 point comeback victory at home over the Chargers on Monday Night Football week 1. They get Tyrann Mathieu back from injury this week and Andre Ellington was able to play through his foot problem last week and have moderate success, but neither of them are 100%. Guys like Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington, and Darnell Dockett are all still gone from that 2013 defense and now John Abraham is out with a concussion and considering retirement.

On the offensive side of the ball, Jonathan Cooper, the 7th overall pick in 2013, is still not 100% coming back from the leg injury that cost him his whole rookie season and has yet to prove himself worthy of a starting job to the coaching staff. Carson Palmer, now in his age 35 season, looked decent against the Chargers, but should struggle against better defenses. The Giants don’t have a great defense, but they’re still more talented than the Chargers’ stop unit, which was one of the worst in the NFL in 2014. Palmer is also dealing with a bad shoulder.

The Giants have a lot of issues, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, but I don’t think they should be 2.5 point home underdogs here against Arizona. The Giants were 1.5 point favorites a week ago and I don’t think enough happened last week for this line to move 4 points. The Giants were blown out in Detroit, but I don’t think people realize how good Detroit is going to be this year. The Cardinals easily could have been blown out there as well.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot, with a game against the 49ers on deck. Teams are 44-60 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs since 2002, including 18-29 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being divisional home underdogs since 1989. The Cardinals have bigger things on the horizon, while the Giants have a random game against the Texans on deck. I wish we were getting field goal protection with the Giants, but they should still be the right side.

New York Giants 17 Arizona Cardinals 16 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: NY Giants +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Raiders, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (1-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-1)

This is a tough one and one I don’t really have a strong opinion on. On one hand, I don’t know if I’m ready to bet on the Texans as field goal favorites. On the other hand, I do think the Texans are going to bounce back in a big way this season. They looked good in the opener in a 19-6 win over another team I think is going to bounce back this season, the Washington Redskins.  The Texans’ offense isn’t great, but they have one of the better defenses in the league. They went 2-14 year, but they were much better than their record.

They went 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less. As bad as their record was last season, they only lost 5 games by more than a touchdown and two of those came late in the season in their final 3 games after Gary Kubiak was fired and the team essentially quit. They were also killed by turnovers last year, going -20 in that aspect and having serious issues with return touchdowns. They finished 21st in rate of moving the chains (including 11th defensively), which was more indicative of their talent level than their record.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the league and they’re in a tough spot here as they have a bigger game in New England next week. They could easily overlook the Texans here. Teams are 39-78 before being double digit underdogs since 2010, including 55-78 as home underdogs before being double digit underdogs since 2002. The Texans, meanwhile, have to play the Giants next week, which is a much easier game. The Texans are the side I’m going with, but I’m not confident and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this ended up being a push and a field goal win by the Texans.

Houston Texans 23 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: Houston -3

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Titans, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0)

I had the Cowboys at 4-12 coming into the season, but even that might have been a little optimistic, based on their play against the 49ers week 1 in a 28-13 home loss. Their defense was just as bad as I expected, unable to get off the field and essentially showing themselves to be non-existent. However, Tony Romo looked like he was turning into 2014’s version of Matt Schaub in 2013, an older non-top tier quarterback who sees his abilities randomly fall off a cliff. Romo threw 3 picks, 2 of which were awful. In his age 34 season, coming off of serious back surgery, it’s a concern.

The Cowboys offense moved the chains well when they weren’t turning the ball over and it’s important not to overreact to one game so I’m not moving them down in my book any further from where I had them, but I still think this is a terrible team with easily the worst defense in the league and an offense that won’t be able to keep up. The Titans aren’t a great team (their win in Kansas City was more an indictment of the Chiefs than a sign that the Titans will be good this season), but they’re still noticeably better than the Cowboys. We’re getting line value with them as they’re more than a half point better than the Titans.

The reason the Titans aren’t a bigger play this week is because they aren’t in a great situation. They have a much tougher game than the Cowboys next week as they go to Cincinnati while the Cowboys go to St. Louis. Teams are 67-96 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites since 2002, while teams are 86-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs since 2010. The Titans should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Tennessee Titans 27 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)

I had these two teams as essentially even before the season started and I really have much of a reason to change that drastically right now. The Dolphins got an impressive home victory over the Patriots, but the Bills were able to win on the road in Chicago. The Bears aren’t a great team or anything, but it’s always impressive when a team wins on the road. However, this line suggests the Dolphins are a significantly better team as they are road favorites of about a month.

The Bills are now returning home, where they were a lot better last season than on the road. They went 6-1 ATS at home last season, excluding a game in Toronto that was essentially a neutral site game. They beat Carolina, Baltimore, Miami, and blew out the Jets. They took the Bengals to overtime, came within 2 points of knocking off the Patriots and their only non-cover in Buffalo was a 23-13 loss to the Chiefs in which they started a 3rd string quarterback and allowed 2 defensive touchdowns. They knocked off the Dolphins twice last season, including a 19-0 win week 16 in Buffalo and I like their chances to do so again, especially against a Dolphins team that could be riding a little too high after last week (7-13 ATS after playing the Patriots since 2001).

Buffalo Bills 16 Miami Dolphins 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Buffalo +1

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bengals, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)

I had the Bengals going 12-4 before the season started. I thought they were better than their record last season because they were able to be a dominant team (11-5) without relying on always winning the turnover battle. Turnover margins are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. They finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential at 7.81%, behind only Denver and New Orleans, thanks to a league best defense that only allowed opponents to move the chains at a 65.68% rate and an above average offense that moved the chains at a 73.49% rate, 12th in the NFL.

The Bengals’ performance week 1 only solidifies that prediction as they were able to get a tough road win against a Baltimore team that is 42-10 at home since 2008, something that gave them problems last season. On the road last season, they went 3-5 and 2-5-1 ATS. That included losses to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo. Now they return home where they were incredible last season.

They went undefeated at home last season in the regular season, doing so by an average of 17.62 points per game and covering all 8 times, until that playoff loss to the Chargers. They should be able to maintain that home dominance this week against an Atlanta team that has had issues outdoors in recent years and that might be a little overconfident coming off of that win against New Orleans in overtime (teams are 35-49 ATS off of a win by 1-3 points as divisional dogs since 2008). The Falcons are also now missing Jake Matthews with an injury, after losing Sam Baker before the season started, which is forcing them to start Gabe Carimi and Lamar Holmes at tackle. This line should be a lot higher than 5.

Cincinnati Bengals 31 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

The Redskins lost in Houston last week and it seems that people have already given up on them as a bounce back team. After all, the Texans won just 2 games last season. I don’t think that’s the right reaction. I think it’s way more likely that the Texans are also going to be a bounce back team this season. Their offense isn’t great, but they have one of the better defenses in the league. They went 2-14 year, but they were much better than their record.

They went 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less. As bad as their record was last season, they only lost 5 games by more than a touchdown and two of those came late in the season in their final 3 games after Gary Kubiak was fired and the team essentially quit. They were also killed by turnovers last year, going -20 in that aspect and having serious issues with return touchdowns. They finished 21st in rate of moving the chains (including 11th defensively), which was more indicative of their talent level than their record. The fact that RG3 and the Redskin offense struggled against the Texans’ defense doesn’t necessarily mean that RG3 will never find his 2012 form again.

He could easily find it this week. The Texans don’t suck, but the Jaguars do. They started out 17-0 against the Eagles, but showed their true colors once again, eventually losing 34-17. They went 4-12 last season and were even worse than their record. They finished dead last in DVOA and point differential, with 10 of their 12 losses coming by double digits. Their 4-12 record was buoyed by a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less.

Those 4 wins came against teams that finished a combined 15-49. They also ranked easily dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. They were dead last in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 64.19% rate. Meanwhile, their defense was 29th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.85% rate. That’s a differential of -11.66%. No one else was worse than -7.45%. In their last 17 games, they’ve lost 11 times by double digits. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Redskins made it 12 times in 18 games. This line is way too low.

Washington Redskins 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Washington -6

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized, Vikings

New England Patriots (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0)

This is the overreaction line of the week. A week ago, most people had the Patriots as one of the top few teams in the NFL and had the Vikings as mediocre at best. The Vikings looked good blowing out a Rams team that had to turn to their 3rd string quarterback mid-game and the Patriots struggles in Miami against a capable Dolphins team, but I don’t think that should cause everyone to throw out all their pre-season evaluations.

Remember, the Patriots led 20-10 at the half and might have been able to hold on for the victory if Rob Gronkowski had been able to play more in the second half. His conditioning should be better now in his 2nd game back from that torn ACL. The Patriots are still a healthier and more talented team than last season and the Vikings still have an underwhelming roster on paper. There’s no reason this line should only be at 3 in favor of Patriots. They were 4.5 point favorites in Miami last week, while the Vikings were 3 point underdogs in St. Louis. This line would have been at least 6 last week, if not more.

Tom Brady and the Patriots thrive on everyone underestimating and discounting them. Tom Brady is 30-15 ATS in his career off of a loss. They’re also in the better spot here with no distractions on the horizon, as they host Oakland next. Road favorites are 44-32 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, the Vikings have to go to New Orleans next week, which is another very tough game. They could easily be double digit underdogs there. Teams are 34-52 ATS since 2002 as home dogs before being double digit underdogs and 17-40 ATS before being double digit underdogs when their opponent will next be double digit favorites.

New England Patriots 27 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: New England -3

Confidence: Medium

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