Month: September 2014

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0)

This is another one where I wish I had bet earlier when the Rams were 6 point favorites before Sam Bradford tore his ACL. I thought the Rams were overrated before Bradford’s injury, as they finished 28th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.32% last season. However, this line falling to 3.5 because of Bradford’s injury seems like an overreaction. Bradford has completed 58.6% of his passes for 6.29 YPA for his career and was coming off of a significant injury that has caused better quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Robert Griffin, Carson Palmer) to struggle in their first year back.

Meanwhile, backup Shaun Hill has completed 62.0% of his passes for an average of 6.69 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions in his career. He’s going into his age 34 season and hasn’t started since 2010, but I don’t think he’s much of a downgrade. There’s simply no line value with the Vikings anymore. These two teams are essentially equal. In fact, gun to my head, I’m taking the Rams to fade the publicly backed underdog Vikings. Whenever the public thinks a team is going to pull an upset, they usually don’t. I expect the Rams to give 110% here in their first game without Bradford as well.

St. Louis Rams 20 Minnesota Vikings 16

Pick against spread: St. Louis -3.5

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at New York Jets: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Jets, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

I don’t understand this line. These two teams are essentially equal in my eyes, but the Jets are still favored by 5.5 points. This line should be about 3, the standard amount given for homefield advantage. The Raiders are going to be bad again, but the Jets should be equally bad. Their 8-8 record last season was not indicative of how bad of a team they were. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a points differential of -97 (7th worst in the NFL) and 5.4 Pythagorean wins. They finished the season 25th in rate of moving the chains differential and 24th in DVOA. They were essentially a 5-11 team that managed to win 8 games.

The Jets should have better turnover luck this season, after recovering a league worst 30.30% of fumbles, and they add Eric Decker and Chris Johnson, but this is still one of the least talent teams in the NFL. Decker is just one guy. Johnson isn’t nearly the player he used to be. Also, their secondary is in shambles to start the season thanks to injuries, so much so that converted safety Antonio Allen is going to play a significant role at cornerback this week.

I wish this line was at 6, instead of 5.5, not just because teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover about a quarter of the time as 6+ point favorites, but also to give us protection from something like a 19-13 Jets win. I also don’t love taking a bad Raider team on the road on the East Coast at a 1 PM start. However, they should be the right side. There’s just too much line value with them because people don’t seem to realize how bad the Jets are going to be this season.

Update: The line moved to 6.5 before game time. I’m moving this up to medium confidence.

New York Jets 20 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: Oakland +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)

Those who follow these picks know I like to use a lot of situational trends. For example, if a team is big favorites before a game in which they are big underdogs, I tend to go the other direction expecting the team to get caught looking forward to the next week (the opposite is true for big underdogs before being big favorites and favorites before being bigger favorites). I don’t like to use those week 1 (instead relying solely on the work I’ve done projecting these teams in the off-season) because teams are almost always completely focused week 1, no matter who they are playing the following week.

However, there is one I’m going to use here. The Steelers could overlook the Browns with a game against the Ravens in a few days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 30-52 ATS the week before Thursday Night Football since 2008. We’re not getting a ton of value with the Browns at +7 and I still expect the Steelers to get the win here as the superior team at home, but I think the Browns are the right side for a low confidence pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)

This is another game where I’m kicking myself for not betting it earlier as the Patriots used to be favorites of a mere 1.5 points. I would have been fairly confident in them -1.5. Tom Brady is 42-18 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in his career. The Patriots have also won 10 of their last 11 season openers. The Patriots were underdogs of a point in Miami last season and only lost by 4, with a shot to win it at the end. It didn’t make sense that they would be favorites of just 1.5 points here in Miami in 2014, with a much improved team that includes Vince Wilfork, Rob Gronkowski, Sebastian Vollmer, and Jerod Mayo coming back from injury, as well as Darrelle Revis coming over from Tampa Bay.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, aren’t really that improved. Branden Albert is a nice addition, but Mike Pouncey won’t play thanks to injury and they lost 3 defensive starters Nolan Carroll, Chris Clemons, and Paul Soliai and downgraded at all 3 spots. Now the Patriots are favored by 4.5, meaning this line jumped the key numbers of 3 and 4. I still like the Patriots’ chances of winning, but I can’t be confident in them against the spread without field goal protection.

New England Patriots 27 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: New England -4.5

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, Bills, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expect their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. They’ll still be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.

I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. The Bears have already lost 3rd wide receiver Marquess Wilson to a significant injury.

Defensively, they had injuries last season, losing Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, and Henry Melton for significant periods of time, but Melton is gone and Briggs and Tillman are going into their age 34 and 33 seasons respectively and see could never be the same. I like what they did at defensive end bringing in LaMarr Houston, Jared Allen, and Willie Young to replace Julius Peppers, Corey Wootton, and Shea McClellin, but Allen isn’t what he used to be and he gives them 4 players who are over 40 (Allen, Briggs, Tillman, and Tim Jennings). It’s not going to be a significantly improved unit and it’ll need to be with the offense likely “only” being an above average offense.

I’m not thrilled about the Bills either, but, as long as we’re getting a touchdown with them, they’re the right side. These two teams are essentially equal (the Bills’ offense is equally bad as the Bears’ defense and the Bears’ offense is equally good as the Bills’ defense) so this line should be around 3. I’m certainly not laying a touchdown with a mediocre Bears team. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover about a quarter of the time as 6+ point favorites. The Bills are the right side here.

Chicago Bears 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +7

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)

This game is between two teams in the Ravens and the Bengals who are much better at home than on the road. The Ravens are 41-9 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 19-10 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals went undefeated at home last season in the regular season, doing so by an average of 17.62 points per game and covering all 8 times. On the road, however, they went 3-5 and 2-5-1 ATS. That included losses to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo.

The Bengals also lost last year in Baltimore and I don’t see why this season would be much different. The Bengals were better than their 11-5 record last season, finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, but that wasn’t the case on the road and, if anything, they’re less talented than last season with Anthony Collins, Michael Johnson, and Mike Zimmer gone. Geno Atkins returning from injury should help, but he’s a question mark in terms of his abilities in his first game back. Meanwhile, the Ravens should be better this season. I like them to once again defend their home field here and beat Cincinnati.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Cincinnati Bengals 10

Pick against spread: Baltimore -1

Confidence: High

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Eagles, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

The Jaguars are a popular “sleeper” team and are popularly seen as one of the most improved teams in the NFL this off-season. I don’t understand that at all. The Jaguars may have won 4 games last season, but they were even worse than their 4-12 record would have suggested and they were the worst team in the NFL. They finished dead last in DVOA and point differential, with 10 of their 12 losses coming by double digits. Their 4-12 record was buoyed by a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Those 4 wins came against teams that finished a combined 15-49. They also ranked easily dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. They were dead last in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 64.19% rate. Meanwhile, their defense was 29th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.85% rate. That’s a differential of -11.66%. No one else was worse than -7.45%.

When you look at this roster, it’s easy to see why they struggled. They were grossly mismanaged in the Gene Smith era and they’re only going into the 2nd year of their new front office and it’s going to take time to rebuild. I don’t really see how they are going to be significantly better this season. They didn’t have an unsustainably poor turnover margin or fumble recovery rate last season. They didn’t have an enormous amount of injuries last season. They didn’t have a hard schedule last season. They didn’t have bad luck and lose a lot of close games.

They didn’t add a lot of talent this off-season. They signed Toby Gerhart, a backup from Minnesota, to be their starting running back. They overpaid for Zane Beadles and Ziggy Hood for the offensive and defensive lines. They signed a pair of aging ex-Seahawk defensive linemen in Red Bryant and Chris Clemons. They drafted a pair of wide receivers in the 2nd round, but rookie wide receivers tend to struggle and they’ll probably be without suspended wide receiver Justin Blackmon for the entire season. I don’t see anyone on the team who is in the top-200 players in the NFL.

They used the 3rd overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft on Blake Bortles. He may be their long-term savior, but the Jaguars are wisely going to let him develop on the bench as a rookie so he won’t contribute much, leaving Chad Henne to quarterback an awful supporting cast. Philadelphia is once again a solid football team so this line should be closer to 14. The Jaguars were blown out on a bunch of occasions last season and should get blown out here again.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -10.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

I feel the same way about the Lions as I did about the Panthers last season, when I predicted they would go 12-4, win the NFC South, and get a first round bye. They were 6th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013, with a differential of 5.42%. They moved the chains at a 73.92% rate, 10th in the NFL, and they allowed opponents to move the chains at a 68.50% rate, 9th in the NFL. They have the talent to be one of the best teams in the NFL, but they’ve had significant issues with close losses and turnovers over the past couple of seasons.

The Lions went 4-12 in 2012, but they were much better than their record suggested. They went 3-8 in games decided by a touchdown in 2012 and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, coming from their -65 point differential. That point differential would have been much better if they hadn’t allowed 10 return touchdowns, while scoring none for themselves. If that was zeroed out, they would have had a +5 point differential and essentially been an 8-8 team.

Going off of that, they had an unsustainably poor turnover margin of -13, largely because of an unsustainably poor fumble recovery rate of 32.56%. Turnover margins (and along with that return touchdown margins) are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0. Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins.

Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to struggle (or have success) the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well. The Lions ranked 16th in DVOA in 2012 despite their record and they were supposed to be a significantly improved team last season.

They were an improved team, going 7-9, but they still missed out on the playoffs and they still were better than their record. They still had a -12 turnover margin, driven by a 42.55% fumble recovery rate. They still went 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 8.5 wins. The things that are supposed to even out in the long run (record in close games, fumble recovery, turnover margin) have not been evening out for this team over the past 2 seasons. The Lions fired head coach Jim Schwartz in an effort to fix this.

They replaced him with Jim Caldwell, which was kind of a weird move. The Lions will be hoping that they’re getting the coach who went 24-8 in his first 2 years with the Colts, the coach who was recommended by Peyton Manning, and the offensive coordinator who turned the Ravens’ offense around mid-season in 2012 en route to a Super Bowl victory, rather than the coach who went 2-14 in his only season with the Colts without Peyton Manning, getting fired, and the offensive coordinator who led one of the worst offenses in the league last season in Baltimore. Either way, the Lions could easily see their poor record in close games and their poor turnover margin even out in their first year under Caldwell, which would allow all the talent they have to shine.

The Giants, meanwhile, were one of the worst teams in the league last season, worse than their record. They finished the season winning 7 of their last 10, but their 7 wins came against opponents that finished a combined 42-68-2, 24-55-1 if you exclude the two playoff teams they beat who were starting backup quarterbacks (Green Bay with Scott Tolzien and Philadelphia with Michael Vick). They finished 7-9 but they had a -89 point differential, ranked 27thin DVOA, and 26th in rate of moving the chains.  They should be an improved team this year with fewer injuries, a better turnover margin, and talent coming in this off-season through free agency. However, that might not necessarily show up in their record and their two biggest off-season additions (Odell Beckham and Geoff Schwartz) won’t play in this game. If this game were week 8, I think this line would be in the double digits so I’m very happy getting it at 6, even though I wish I had locked this in a few weeks ago when it was at 4.

Detroit Lions 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

It’s hard to find a team that has lost as much talent since the last time we played football as the Cardinals, particularly defensively. Karlos Dansby is gone as a free agent. Daryl Washington was suspended for the season. Darnell Dockett is out for the season with an injury. Meanwhile, John Abraham is going into his age 36 season and Tyrann Mathieu is going to miss the start of the season with injury.

Offensively, they had the potential to be better this season with Jared Veldheer coming in as a free agent, Andre Ellington stepping into the lead back role, and Jonathan Cooper coming back from injury. However, Ellington is expected to be out for this game, leaving Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor as their top running backs and Cooper is having issues coming back from his injury and can’t crack the starting lineup.

In spite of that, they’re still favored by a field goal here at home, which suggests they are roughly equal to the Chargers. I don’t agree with that. The Chargers are unlikely to be quite as good offensively as they were last season with Philip Rivers going into his age 33 season and Ken Whisenhunt gone, but they get Melvin Ingram and Dwight Freeney back from injury 100% and Brandon Flowers comes in as a free agent. I like the underdog a fair amount here.

San Diego Chargers 27 Arizona Cardinals 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: San Diego +3

Confidence: High

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San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cowboys, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

This is another one I’m kicking myself for not betting earlier. The 49ers opened as favorites of less than a field goal here in Dallas, but the public seems to have caught on that the Cowboys are going to be awful this season and the line is now at 4.5. That crosses over the key numbers of 3 and 4 and loses us a lot of value here. The 49ers are still my pick here. They tend to beat up on bad teams and should be able to win by at least a touchdown here in Dallas.

The Cowboys are going to be close to an all-time bad defensively. They were awful last season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77.66%, easily worst in the NFL, and they could be even worse this season. The Cowboys had 4 players play more than 100 snaps on defense last season and grade out above average on Pro Football Focus. Two of them (Jason Hatcher and DeMarcus Ware) are gone, while another one (Sean Lee) is out for the season with injury and the 4th (Orlando Scandrick) will start the season with a 4 game suspension.

Guys like Henry Melton, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Anthony Spencer were supposed to come in as reinforcements, but Melton is a question mark in terms of how good he can be coming off of a torn ACL, Lawrence is out with a foot injury, and Spencer is still not back from serious knee surgery that cost him most of last season. Throw in an aging Tony Romo coming off of a bad back offensively and you have a team that is one of the worst in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have always been able to beat up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 23-12 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since 2011, including 9-4 ATS on the road. Last season, against teams that finished .500 or worse, Colin Kaepernick completed 110 of 177 (62.2%) for 1553 yards (8.69 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns on 45 carries in 8 games. They’ve won all 8 of those games by an average of 20.13 points per game and covered 7 times. I wish I wasn’t giving more than 3 points with a banged up 49er team (no Aldon Smith, no NaVorro Bowman, no Glenn Dorsey, no Anthony Davis), especially a highly public backed one, but the 49ers are the right side.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against spread: San Francisco -4.5

Confidence: Low

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