Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Detroit Lions (3-1)

The Lions are in the better spot here. While they only have to deal with the Vikings in Minnesota next week, the Bills have to deal with the Patriots at home, a much tougher game. Teams are 52-26 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008, while non-divisional road underdogs are 56-81 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 71-47 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, while teams are 47-75 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs.

I think we’re also getting line value here as the league still hasn’t caught on to the fact that the Lions are one of the league’s elite teams. The Lions are 5^th in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.43%. That’s consistent with how they played last season (regardless of their record), as they finished 6^th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.42%. Meanwhile, the Bills rank 29^th in rate of moving the chains differential at -7.50%.

There is one reason that this isn’t a bigger play. The Bills are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-46 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 173-179 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 242-349 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.22 points per game. The Lions should still be the right side.

Detroit Lions 27 Buffalo Bills 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: Medium

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