Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

One of the most powerful trends says that big road favorites dominate off a bye. Road favorites of 3 or more are 39-12 ATS off a bye since 2002, which is an incredibly high rate. The Seahawks should be completely focused here as 7.5 point favorites and be able to blow out an incredibly inferior opponent even on the road. The Seahawks are also at an advantage because this game will be at night and West Coast teams dominate East Coast teams at night, no matter where the game is played, covering at about a 67% rate. The Redskins could be getting tired towards the end of this game, while the Seahawks will be alert the whole time.

In spite of both of those things, this isn’t a bigger play for the Seahawks because the Redskins are in one good spot. They were demolished on Thursday Night Football last week. It might seem counter-intuitive, but that makes it more likely they’ll cover this week as this line could be a little inflated. This line was at 6 points a week ago, which is where I wish it still was, but now it’s 7.5, moving from the key number of 6 and crossing over another key number of 7. Underdogs are 24-13 ATS off of a Thursday Night loss of 14 or more. Not only did we get that line movement, but the Redskins have had 10 days to hear about how bad they are, which is extra motivation. I like the Seahawks still, but it’s only a medium confidence play.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -7.5

Confidence: Medium

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