Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1)

The Cardinals have been anointed one of the top few teams in the NFL as a result of their 3-0 start. That’s very short-sighted. There always one team that start 3-0 or better and goes on to miss the playoffs. The Dolphins started 3-0 last year. The Cardinals started 4-0 in 2012. The Bills started 3-0 in 2011, etc. On top of that, about 2/3rds of the league has a 3+ game winning streak at some point in a 16 game season. It’s just much more noticeable at the start of the season. But everyone is overreacting to 18.75% of an NFL season.

The argument is that the Cardinals also played well last season, finishing 10-6, the only team to win double digit games and miss the playoffs, but considering they’ve lost Carson Palmer, Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington, Karlos Dansby, John Abraham, and essentially lost Tyrann Mathieu (20 snaps thus far this season as he comes off a torn ACL), it’s hard to lump in last season and this season together. Bruce Arians is doing a hell of a coaching job, but this team doesn’t have the talent to maintain this level of play. Pro Football Focus has them rated 23^rd in team grade offensively and 22^nd in team grade defensively. I think that’s telling.

Given that, I’m going to fade the Cardinals this week. This line is pretty big at 7.5 so we’re not getting a ton of line value with the Broncos, but they should still be the right side. I’m not super confident, but the fact that Peyton Manning is 12-5 ATS as a regular season home favorite in their career with the Broncos (since 2012) and the fact that Peyton Manning is 11-5 ATS off of a regular season bye in his career help support my case and solidify my choice.

Denver Broncos 24 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Denver -7.5

Confidence: Low

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