Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

I think the Ravens are an underrated team. They are 3-1 and they’ve moved the chains at a higher rate than their opponent in all 4 games they’ve played. Even in their home loss to undefeated Cincinnati, they moved the chains at a 75.68% rate, as opposed to 62.69% for the Bengals. They currently lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 9.59%. They move the chains at an 80.88% rate, as opposed to 71.30% for their opponents. I’m kind of concerned that they’ve lost both Dennis Pitta and Eugene Monroe for extended periods of time, but they didn’t seem to miss them much in last week’s home win over the Panthers, a 38-10 victory.

The Colts are actually 3^rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at an 80.26% rate, as opposed to 73.23% for their opponents (a differential of 7.03%). However, most of that is because they destroyed the Jaguars and Titans over the past two weeks. Against the Jaguars, they moved the chains at an 83.78% rate, as opposed to 68.97% for their opponents. Against the Titans, they moved the chains at an 83.72% rate, as opposed to 64.29% for their opponents. They’ve had more trouble with tougher opponents though. I think the Ravens are the better team here.

The reason I’m not that confident in the Ravens is because they aren’t the same team on the road. Since the start of the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco in 2008, they are 43-10 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.30 points per game, as opposed to 31-29 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.98 points per game. However, given that we’re getting more than a field goal with the better team, the Ravens should be the right side. Also helpful for the Ravens, the Colts have a Thursday Night game against the Texans up next. Favorites are 31-55 ATS before a Thursday Night game since 2008.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Baltimore Ravens 19

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]