Chicago Bears (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2)

The Panthers have lost their last two games by scores of 37-19 and 38-10, a combined margin of 46 points. As a result, the public seems very turned off of them, as they are heavily backing the underdog. However, I like the Panthers for three reasons. One, I like to fade publicly backed underdogs on principle. If the Bears are really better than the Panthers like the public thinks, why do the odds makers (who always come out on top) have them as 2.5 point underdogs? Whenever the public thinks an upset will be pulled, it usually doesn’t happen.

Two, the Panthers are actually in a good spot after back-to-back blowouts. Teams are 48-27 ATS off of two losses by a combined 45 or more points since 2008.  It may seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Panthers should be all three this week. Three, these two teams are at the very least even, so, as long as I’m laying less than a field goal with the Panthers at home, they’re the side I’m going with here. I’m not that confident though.

Carolina Panthers 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against spread: Carolina -2.5

Confidence: Low

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