New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)
The Eagles are 4-1, but they are a fraudulent 4-1. Of their 4 wins, 3 of them have come by 6 or less and 2 of them have come by 3 or less. The other one was a home game against the Jaguars. They also have 6 return touchdowns, as opposed to just 11 offensive touchdowns. If you take those return touchdowns out of the equation, they would have a -18 point differential, which would be 5th worst in the NFC. They rank just 24th in rate of moving the chains differential at -3.29%. They are moving the chains at just a 69.94% rate, as opposed to 73.22% for their opponents.
The biggest problem with their offense is that they are averaging 3.79 yards per carry on the ground, including just 2.90 yards per carry from LeSean McCoy. The issue is the offensive line as both Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce, Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked guard and center respectively in 2013, are out for an extended period of time. Those are arguably the two best run blocking offensive linemen in the NFL. Also, Nick Foles’ mechanics and accuracy have been a best, as the 2nd year starter has regressed and ranked as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked quarterback out of 35 eligible. Neither of those two problems is going to correct itself any time soon.
The Giants, meanwhile, are a much better team. They rank 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.70% rate, as opposed to a 72.67% rate for their opponents, a differential of 4.04%. Even though Philadelphia has the better record and they are less than field goal favorites here at home (2.5), we’re still getting significant line value with the Giants. That line also isn’t taking into account that the Giants very dangerous on the road. Since the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning in 2004, they are 55-34 ATS on the road, including 36-21 ATS as road underdogs, and 16-7 ATS as divisional road underdogs.
The Eagles are also in a bad spot. Home favorites of 6 or more cover the spread at a very high rate going into the bye (about 75%), but it’s the exact opposite for home favorites of all other amounts as home favorites of 1-5.5 are 34-59 ATS since 2002 going into a bye. They’re also 27-43 ATS at home since 2006, including 8-18 ATS in divisional games at home. I love the Giants to pull the upset and they are my Pick of the Week as 2.5 point underdogs.
New York Giants 27 Philadelphia Eagles 20 Upset Pick +130
Pick against spread: NY Giants -2.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
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