What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	NO	137	16	8	15	10	1	0	81.82%
2	IND	133	17	10	17	9	4	0	78.95%
3	DAL	119	14	11	16	10	0	0	78.24%
4	CHI	115	13	7	18	10	2	0	77.58%
5	CLE	92	11	8	19	1	2	0	77.44%
6	KC	106	14	7	20	6	2	0	77.42%
7	DEN	87	14	6	20	4	0	0	77.10%
8	GB	94	16	6	19	4	2	2	76.92%
9	BAL	114	12	13	15	6	4	0	76.83%
10	NYG	119	16	7	21	10	3	0	76.70%
11	SEA	85	13	7	18	3	1	1	76.56%
12	ATL	116	17	7	21	11	2	0	76.44%
13	SD	102	14	11	23	2	1	0	75.82%
14	PIT	112	10	11	22	6	0	0	75.78%
15	SF	100	10	13	17	5	1	0	75.34%
16	STL	90	8	8	14	9	2	0	74.81%
17	WAS	110	14	6	24	9	3	0	74.70%
18	CAR	101	10	10	25	6	0	0	73.03%
19	TB	86	11	5	20	11	1	1	71.85%
20	CIN	79	10	13	16	4	2	0	71.77%
21	MIA	90	9	9	16	8	6	0	71.74%
22	ARZ	76	7	11	20	3	0	0	70.94%
23	NE	100	10	13	24	5	4	0	70.51%
24	TEN	97	10	8	25	7	3	2	70.39%
25	DET	92	10	12	22	8	1	0	70.34%
26	MIN	94	9	12	23	7	2	0	70.07%
27	PHI	103	11	11	24	12	2	0	69.94%
28	HOU	90	9	10	25	8	1	0	69.23%
29	NYJ	88	8	8	27	10	3	0	66.67%
30	OAK	64	6	3	23	9	1	0	66.04%
31	JAX	77	7	8	28	10	4	0	62.69%
32	BUF	82	7	15	31	4	2	1	62.68%

 

Defense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	DET	86	8	8	30	6	2	1	66.67%
2	MIA	73	10	8	20	8	3	0	68.03%
3	BUF	104	7	11	28	10	3	0	68.10%
4	SD	86	8	3	23	8	6	1	69.63%
5	IND	97	12	9	25	10	2	0	70.32%
6	NE	99	10	12	20	11	2	0	70.78%
7	KC	96	9	13	24	3	2	0	71.43%
8	DEN	87	10	8	23	3	3	1	71.85%
9	BAL	98	7	13	19	8	1	0	71.92%
10	HOU	109	10	7	25	12	2	0	72.12%
11	SEA	79	9	6	23	3	1	1	72.13%
12	NYJ	91	14	8	29	3	0	0	72.41%
13	WAS	97	14	8	29	4	1	0	72.55%
14	NYG	98	11	10	19	10	2	0	72.67%
15	PHI	119	15	12	26	8	3	0	73.22%
16	CIN	97	7	10	17	7	3	1	73.24%
17	PIT	101	10	13	21	5	1	0	73.51%
18	DAL	93	11	6	19	9	3	0	73.76%
19	CHI	98	13	12	14	11	2	0	74.00%
20	MIN	96	14	6	26	5	1	0	74.32%
21	ARZ	84	11	5	18	7	2	0	74.80%
22	SF	94	10	5	18	10	2	0	74.82%
23	ATL	109	15	14	18	9	0	0	75.15%
24	CAR	104	14	9	18	10	2	0	75.16%
25	OAK	85	10	10	14	5	2	0	75.40%
26	TEN	124	15	11	20	7	4	0	76.80%
27	CLE	95	12	7	18	4	2	1	76.98%
28	STL	77	10	8	12	6	0	0	76.99%
29	GB	118	11	7	16	10	3	0	78.18%
30	JAX	122	16	12	20	4	2	0	78.41%
31	NO	108	14	10	20	2	0	1	78.71%
32	TB	126	16	13	16	9	0	0	78.89%

 

Overall

1	IND	8.62%
2	SD	6.19%
3	KC	5.99%
4	DEN	5.25%
5	BAL	4.91%
6	DAL	4.48%
7	SEA	4.43%
8	NYG	4.04%
9	MIA	3.71%
10	DET	3.68%
11	CHI	3.58%
12	NO	3.11%
13	PIT	2.27%
14	WAS	2.15%
15	ATL	1.29%
16	SF	0.52%
17	CLE	0.47%
18	NE	-0.27%
19	GB	-1.26%
20	CIN	-1.47%
21	CAR	-2.13%
22	STL	-2.18%
23	HOU	-2.89%
24	PHI	-3.29%
25	ARZ	-3.86%
26	MIN	-4.26%
27	BUF	-5.42%
28	NYJ	-5.75%
29	TEN	-6.40%
30	TB	-7.04%
31	OAK	-9.36%
32	JAX	-15.72%

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