Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

The Seahawks are basically an auto-bet at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 43-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.73 points per game. This is opposed to a 23-40 record away from home (28-34-1 ATS) and getting outscored by 3.90 points per game on the road.

This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 3 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 19-1 straight up and 15-5 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.55 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 8.72 points per game at home. The normal 3 points for homefield advantage doesn’t apply for them and they should get something like 6 points for homefield advantage, at least. The odds makers have been clearly boosting the spread for their homefield advantage recently, but they’ve still covered 6 of their last 10 home games. The odds makers clearly boosted the spread for the Seahawks’ special homefield advantage when the Seahawks played Green Bay and Denver, against whom they were 7.5 point and 5 point favorites respectively. They still covered both spreads.

Given that, it seems a little ridiculous that they are only 8 point favorites here for the Cowboys. The Cowboys have exceeded expectations this season, but they’re not as good as their record. They’ve had close calls with Houston and St. Louis and haven’t really beaten anyone who is having much success this season. The Seahawks in Seattle will be a different story. If the Broncos couldn’t cover the spread in Seattle and the Packers got blown out in Seattle, the Cowboys should lose this one by double digits.

The Seahawks are also in a good spot with just a road game against the Rams on deck. Teams are 54-28 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. On top of that, teams are 75-49 ATS since 2002 before being 3+ road favorites. The Cowboys are technically in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 120-88 ATS in since 2002, but their game against the Giants next week is much more important to them than the Seahawks’ game against the Rams so the Seahawks are in the better spot. I’m going to take them in that better spot in a location where they almost always cover. The Seahawks are also my survivor pick.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Dallas Cowboys 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Seattle -8

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]