Chicago Bears (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

Two spots the Falcons have always done well in since 2008, the first year of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, have been off of a loss and at home. Matt Ryan is 30-19 ATS at home in his career and 23-11 ATS off of a loss. The Falcons didn’t show well off of a loss last week in New York against the Giants, but they were on the road. The Falcons haven’t won outside since 2012. Now at home in their dome, they could have an easier time. They are 15-7 ATS at home off a loss since 2008 as long as Matt Ryan is under center.

Despite all that, I’m taking the Bears here because they have even more powerful situational trends on their side. The Bears are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 105-69 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 89-47 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 174-180 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.12 points per game, as opposed to 244-355 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.36 points per game.

The Bears are also in a much better spot with a much easier game on deck. While the Bears host the Dolphins next, the Falcons have to go to Baltimore. Teams are 70-100 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 106-72 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 93-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 93-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. The Falcons’ defense and offensive line are a mess so as good as their passing game is and as good as they are at home and off a loss, I like the Bears to come in and potentially pull the upset. I’m taking them and the field goal.

Chicago Bears 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: Medium

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