New England Patriots (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

This is one game I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Bills have been pretty successful at home in Buffalo over the past couple of seasons, going 8-2 ATS there in their last 10 games, including 6-1 ATS as home underdogs during that time frame. Last season, they beat Carolina, Baltimore, Miami, and blew out the Jets. They took the Bengals to overtime, came within 2 points of knocking off the Patriots and their only non-cover in Buffalo was a 23-13 loss to the Chiefs in which they started a 3rd string quarterback and allowed 2 defensive touchdowns. They’ve also beat Miami at home in Buffalo twice over that time period.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are 3-9 ATS on the road since the start of the 2013 season, including 1-5 ATS as road favorites. The Patriots are just 5-7 straight up on the road over that time period, as opposed to 11-0 straight up at home. On top of that, the Patriots have another game in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Sure it’s just the Jets, but it’s still a football game and a divisional game at that. Favorites generally don’t cover before Thursday Night Games, going 32-55 ATS in that spot since 2008.

On the other hand, the Patriots could easily be double digit favorites in that game and teams generally cover before being double digit favorites, which makes sense as that game is not nearly as big of a distraction as a harder game. Teams are 68-53 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2010, including 55-38 ATS as favorites before being double digit favorites. On top of that, divisional road favorites are 42-24 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 2002. I’m going with the Bills and fading the public, but I’m not confident and if this line goes below a field goal, I might switch to the Patriots. That’s how close this is and Tom Brady is 43-18 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 in his career.

New England Patriots 19 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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