Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)
The Ravens have been very good at home over the past few seasons, since 2008 when Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came to town. However, they haven’t been as good on the road. Since 2008, the Ravens are 43-10 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.30 points per game. On the other hand, they are 31-30 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.85 points per game, a difference of about 9.5 points per game. They fell flat on the road in Indianapolis last week, losing 26-13.
That being said, they are now in their 2nd straight road game, which tends to work on better for teams. Teams are 174-180 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.12 points per game, as opposed to 244-355 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.36 points per game. Teams seem to adjust to the road in their 2nd straight road game. Road underdogs off of a road loss tend to cover at the highest rate, but teams are 32-22 ATS as road favorites off of a road loss in their 2nd road game of two.
The Buccaneers, conversely, are in a bad spot, coming off of a rough overtime loss in New Orleans last week. Teams are 13-21 ATS since 1989 as home underdogs off an overtime loss as road underdogs. We’re also getting line value with the Ravens. They are moving the chains at a 76.83% rate, as opposed to 71.92% for their opponents, a differential of 4.91% that ranks 5th in the NFL. I am concerned about their offense without Dennis Pitta and Eugene Monroe, especially after how poorly they played in Indianapolis last week, but I still like their chances of bouncing back here this week.
Baltimore Ravens 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Pick against spread: Baltimore -3.5
Confidence: Low
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