Denver Broncos (3-1) at New York Jets (1-4)
The Jets got destroyed last week in San Diego, losing 31-0 and that’s caused a significant line movement. A week ago, this line was at 6 and now it’s at 9.5 and possibly climbing even more before game time. Ordinarily, I like to fade that kind of line movement, especially with the public all over the favorite Denver here, but I’m still going with the Broncos here. I’m not that confident and there really isn’t much line value with the Broncos, but they still seem like the right side. The Jets were terrible last week so some of that line movement was deserved.
They are now 28th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.75%, moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 72.41% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Broncos are moving the chains at a 77.10%, as opposed to 71.85% for their opponents, a differential of 5.25%, 4th in the NFL. The line seems like it’s right where it should be. The Jets are also in a bad spot as they have to go to New England in 4 days for Thursday Night Football. They might not be focused enough to even cover this spread against a dominant opponent. Teams are 40-81 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, including 28-62 ATS as underdogs before being double digit underdogs. Again I’m not confident, but the Broncos are my pick here.
Denver Broncos 30 New York Jets 20
Pick against spread: Denver -9.5
Confidence: None
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