Detroit Lions (3-2) at Minnesota Vikings (2-3)

The Vikings got destroyed on Thursday Night Football last week, losing 42-10 in Green Bay to the Packers. However, there are arguments for why they’ll bounce back. The most obvious one is that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be back from injury and he’ll be a significant improvement over Christian Ponder, the injury fill-in last week in Green Bay. They also return home, rather than playing in Lambeau, one of the toughest places to win in the NFL. On top of that, teams usually cover off a blowout Thursday Night loss as they’ve had extra time to stew over the loss and to make the necessary adjustments. Underdogs are 24-14 ATS off a Thursday Night loss of 14 or more since 1989.

However, I still like the Lions here. Part of the reason why that aforementioned trend is powerful is because usually there is a big overreaction line movement associated with that type of nationally televised loss. In this case, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite did as the Lions were 4 point favorites here last week. That made a lot of sense because that would mean the Lions would be 10 point favorites at home. Considering the Vikings were 9 point underdogs in Green Bay, who lost in Detroit, that makes a lot of sense.

Now the Vikings are 1 point favorites, despite their blowout loss last week. Obviously the fact that Calvin Johnson isn’t going to play this week has something to do with that line movement, but I think that 5 points of line movement is way too much. Calvin Johnson has barely made an impact over the past two weeks with this ankle injury so they’re already essentially playing without him. They lost at home to the Bills last week, which was a huge disappointment, but they could have easily won that game if kicker Alex Henery, who is now gone, didn’t miss all 3 field goals. The previous week, they won 24-17 in New York against the Jets with Calvin Johnson making minimal impact. They could easily do a similar thing here in Minnesota. Golden Tate has done a great job in Johnson’s “absence” over the past two weeks, as the former Seahawk has caught 15 passes for 250 yards and a touchdown in the last 2 games, showing why the Lions went out and signed him this off-season.

The Lions are also in the better spot as they will be favorites next week at home for New Orleans, while the Vikings will be underdogs on the road in Buffalo. Teams are 70-100 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 106-72 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 93-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 93-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. The Lions should be the right side here.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Medium

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