Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-2)

The Packers had a dominant win on Thursday Night Football last week, winning 42-10. However, that hurts them this week. The Packers will have had 10 days of basking in their own glory after last week’s blowout victory over the Buccaneers. Road favorites are 9-19 ATS after a Thursday Night win of 10 or more since 1989. Usually wins like that are usually accompanied by big overreaction line movements so it makes sense. The line hasn’t shifted much (going from 3 to 3.5), but it’s still moved off of the key number of 3 and the Packers could still be overconfident here.

We’re getting line value with the Dolphins as well. The Packers were 9 point favorites at home for the Vikings and Christian Ponder last week. This line suggests that the Packers would be 9.5 point favorites at home for the Dolphins, even though the Dolphins are better than the Vikings with Christian Ponder. Sure the Packers blew out the Vikings, but that was in Lambeau, where they’re a lot better. Since 2009, the Packers are 36-9 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.98 points per game. On the other hand, they are 27-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.94 points per game, a difference of about 8 points per game. It’s not a strong lean, but as long as the line is higher than a field goal, the Dolphins should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 27 Miami Dolphins 24

Pick against spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Low

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