Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)

This is one of the games that I’m most indecivise on this week. Both of these teams are in good spots with easy games up next. The Steelers have a non-divisional home game against an average at best Houston team next week, while the Browns head to Jacksonville for a non-divisional game with the worst team in the NFL. Teams are 106-75 ATS as divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home favorites since 2002.

At the same time, the Browns are projected to be 4 point road favorites in Jacksonville, which just shows how bad the Jaguars are. Teams are 74-49 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012, including 46-28 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites over that time period. I’ve gone back and forth on this game a bunch of times this week. At the end of the day, I’m taking the Browns and fading the public underdog Steelers on principle, but I’m not confident at all.

Cleveland Browns 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland -1

Confidence: None

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