San Diego Chargers (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-4)
The Chargers have broken out as one of the top teams in the NFL and are a legitimate contender. Their offense has continued to be as good as it was last season. Last season, they moved the chains at a 78.26% rate, 2nd in the NFL. This season, they’re actually doing worse than that, moving the chains at a 75.82% rate, ranking 13th in the NFL. However, that’s still really good and much of the decline is because they are averaging just 2.80 yards per carry. Philip Rivers is playing like an MVP candidate, completing 70.3% of his passes for an average of 8.75 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Things will get even better when Ryan Mathews comes back from injury and Brendan Oliver had a strong performance last week, rushing for 114 yards and a touchdown on 19 attempts, catching 4 passes for another 68 yards and another touchdown.
The biggest difference for this team between last year and this year though is the defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.63% rate, 4th in the NFL. Free agent acquisition Brandon Flowers has been huge, having a big-time bounce back year and showing himself to once again be one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. Overall, the Chargers have a rate of moving the chains differential of 6.19%, 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Raiders are a train wreck, moving the chains at a 66.04% rate, as opposed to 75.40% for their opponents, a differential of -9.36% that is only better than Jacksonville. This line isn’t high enough at a touchdown, especially since the Chargers don’t have any huge distractions on the horizon. The Chargers host the Chiefs next. Teams are 42-24 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. The Chargers should be the right side.
San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 17
Pick against spread: San Diego -7
Confidence: Low
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