San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-3)
The 49ers have generally beaten up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era, dating back to 2011, going 24-15 ATS as favorites of 3+ in that time period. The Rams definitely qualify as a bad team, as they are 1-3 and rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential at -2.18%. They move the chains at a 74.81% rate, as opposed to 76.99% for their opponents. However, the 49ers are 1-3-1 ATS this season despite the fact that they’ve been favored by 3 or more in all 5 games, the situation they traditionally dominate in.
They haven’t been the same team this season thanks to the loss of guys like NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, Glenn Dorsey, and Anthony Davis to injury. Vernon Davis is expected back for this one, but they’ve still struggled by their standards this season and I don’t know if that’s going to fix everything, especially since their biggest problems are defensively. They are moving the chains at 75.34% rate, as opposed to 74.82% for their opponents, a differential of 0.52% that ranks only 16th in the NFL. I’m still going to take the 49ers, especially since home divisional underdogs are 30-56 ATS in night games since 1989, but I’m not confident at all.
San Francisco 49ers 24 St. Louis Rams 20
Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5
Confidence: None
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