What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	NO	137	16	8	15	10	1	0	81.82%
2	IND	160	21	12	21	11	4	0	79.04%
3	GB	121	19	8	23	4	2	2	78.21%
4	DAL	142	17	14	19	12	0	0	77.94%
5	BAL	137	18	16	17	7	4	0	77.89%
6	CHI	138	16	9	23	10	2	0	77.78%
7	SD	126	18	12	26	2	2	0	77.42%
8	KC	106	14	7	20	6	2	0	77.42%
9	CLE	111	15	9	25	2	2	0	76.83%
10	DEN	108	17	7	28	4	0	0	76.22%
11	CAR	130	14	14	26	7	0	0	75.39%
12	CIN	108	14	17	17	6	2	0	74.39%
13	PIT	134	11	12	29	7	2	0	74.36%
14	SF	117	13	14	22	6	3	0	74.29%
15	ATL	128	18	9	26	12	4	0	74.11%
16	WAS	131	16	8	29	13	3	0	73.50%
17	NYG	131	16	7	31	11	4	0	73.50%
18	SEA	94	14	10	22	4	2	1	73.47%
19	STL	109	10	9	22	10	2	0	73.46%
20	MIA	109	12	10	19	11	7	0	72.02%
21	TB	108	13	7	25	12	3	1	71.60%
22	NE	122	14	17	28	5	4	0	71.58%
23	PHI	127	14	13	30	14	2	0	70.50%
24	ARZ	95	9	14	27	3	0	0	70.27%
25	HOU	108	12	11	29	10	2	0	69.77%
26	TEN	111	11	11	30	7	3	2	69.71%
27	DET	110	12	15	29	8	2	0	69.32%
28	OAK	81	10	4	27	10	1	0	68.42%
29	MIN	109	9	13	30	10	3	0	67.82%
30	NYJ	103	10	9	34	12	3	0	66.08%
31	JAX	104	9	9	34	12	4	0	65.70%
32	BUF	101	10	15	36	7	3	1	64.16%

 

Defense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	DET	101	8	9	37	9	3	1	64.88%
2	BUF	126	11	15	32	10	3	0	69.54%
3	DEN	102	12	9	30	5	3	1	70.37%
4	PHI	131	15	12	36	9	4	0	70.53%
5	IND	115	15	10	29	12	3	0	70.65%
6	NE	118	13	12	25	14	3	0	70.81%
7	SD	103	12	4	27	9	6	1	70.99%
8	DAL	102	12	9	23	10	4	0	71.25%
9	KC	96	9	13	24	3	2	0	71.43%
10	MIA	100	13	10	24	8	3	0	71.52%
11	BAL	120	9	15	24	9	3	0	71.67%
12	CHI	110	14	14	19	12	4	0	71.68%
13	WAS	116	16	11	36	4	1	0	71.74%
14	NYJ	112	17	9	37	3	0	0	72.47%
15	MIN	114	16	9	33	5	2	0	72.63%
16	NYG	122	14	12	25	12	2	0	72.73%
17	SEA	102	12	9	26	5	1	1	73.08%
18	ARZ	105	13	7	23	11	2	0	73.29%
19	SF	113	12	6	26	11	2	0	73.53%
20	HOU	136	14	9	29	14	2	0	73.53%
21	PIT	120	14	14	27	6	1	0	73.63%
22	CLE	117	13	8	25	5	4	1	75.14%
23	STL	94	13	9	17	7	2	0	75.35%
24	CIN	126	11	14	18	8	3	1	75.69%
25	ATL	132	18	16	23	9	0	0	75.76%
26	CAR	133	18	13	19	12	2	0	76.65%
27	TEN	151	17	12	26	9	4	0	76.71%
28	JAX	136	17	15	25	4	2	0	76.88%
29	OAK	109	14	11	17	5	3	0	77.36%
30	GB	137	14	8	19	13	4	0	77.44%
31	NO	108	14	10	20	2	0	1	78.71%
32	TB	149	22	16	18	10	0	0	79.53%

 

Overall

1	IND	8.39%
2	DAL	6.69%
3	SD	6.43%
4	BAL	6.22%
5	CHI	6.10%
6	KC	5.99%
7	DEN	5.85%
8	DET	4.44%
9	NO	3.11%
10	WAS	1.76%
11	CLE	1.68%
12	GB	0.78%
13	NYG	0.77%
14	NE	0.77%
15	SF	0.76%
16	PIT	0.73%
17	MIA	0.50%
18	SEA	0.39%
19	PHI	-0.03%
20	CAR	-1.26%
21	CIN	-1.30%
22	ATL	-1.65%
23	STL	-1.90%
24	ARZ	-3.02%
25	HOU	-3.76%
26	MIN	-4.81%
27	BUF	-5.38%
28	NYJ	-6.39%
29	TEN	-7.00%
30	TB	-7.94%
31	OAK	-8.94%
32	JAX	-11.19%

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