Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)

The Bengals played the Panthers to a tie last week and now they have to go on the road to Indianapolis. That puts them at a disadvantage rest wise, for obvious reasons. Ties are rare so there isn’t a big sample size, but teams are 5-9 ATS off of a tie since 1989, including 0-5 ATS on the road, all of which makes sense. Making matters worse, the Colts are coming off of a Thursday Night game so they’ve had extra rest and the Colts are much better at home than the Bengals are on the road. Since the start of the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era in 2012, the Colts are 13-6 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 3-6-1 on the road since the start of last season, including losses in 2013 to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo.

This line is also suggesting that these two teams are even and that’s not true right now, even before you take into account the Colts’ home dominance, the Bengals’ road struggles, or the rest factor. The Colts are arguably the best team in the NFL right now, or at least they’ve played like it through 6 games. With the exception of a 3 point home loss as 3 point home favorites to the Eagles, the Colts have covered every game this season. Both of their losses came against teams that currently have one loss and they came by a combined 10 points.

Andrew Luck is playing like the type of quarterback he was expected to become, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average 7.64 YPA, 17 touchdowns, 7 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground on 26 carries. The defense has held up as well. Through 6 games, they are moving the chains at a 79.04% rate, as opposed to 70.65% for their opponents, a differential of 8.39% that is best in the NFL by close to 2 percentage points (6.69% is the next best).

Meanwhile, the Bengals rank 21^st. They are moving the chains at a 74.39% rate, as opposed to 75.69%, a differential of -1.30%. They were a lot better last season, finishing 3^rd in rate of moving the chains differential and they could still play a lot better this season, but it’s possible that the off-season losses of both coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer as well as talented defensive starter Michael Johnson are too much for them, as their defense has been the unit that’s disappointed the most. They could bounce back long-term, but I’m not betting on them on the road in Indianapolis as mere field goal underdogs when the Colts have the rest advantage. The Colts are the easy play here.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: High

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