Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (4-1)

The Chargers are in about as bad as a spot as a team can be this week. They have a huge game 4 days after this in Denver, arguably the biggest game of their season. This game here is important because it’s a divisional game obviously, but the Chargers are at home and significantly favored. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have a random non-conference game against the Rams on deck and they’ll be heavily favored against the Rams in Kansas City. Teams tend to struggle as favorites before being underdogs and teams tend to perform well as underdogs before being favorites, for obvious reasons.

For example, teams are 106-76 ATS divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2002. Even more powerful, teams are just 19-51 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. Going off of that, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 94-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. Combining these, teams are just 24-70 ATS since 1989 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs when their opponents will next be home favorites.

Making things even worse for the Chargers is the fact that their game against the Broncos just 4 days after this one as they go to Denver on Thursday Night Football. Teams are just 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Football game. We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Chiefs, as the Chargers are 3^rd in the NFL with a rate of moving the chains differential of 6.43%, as opposed to 5.99% for the Chiefs, who are 6^th.

The Chargers are moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents. This line is too high even before you get into all the situational trends I mentioned above. I don’t see the Chargers being able to beat them by 6 or more in the spot they’re currently in. The Chiefs are my Pick of the Week.

Update: I’m glad I locked this in at 5.5 at the very beginning of the week. Despite the public action being on San Diego, this spread quickly dropped to 4, suggesting heavy, immediate sharp action on Kansas City. This further affirms my position. I’d still take it at 4.

San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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