New York Giants (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)

The Giants got blown out in Philadelphia last week, but that actually bodes well for their chances of covering the spread this week, as the Giants are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 106-69 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 90-47 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 176-181 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.06 points per game, as opposed to 251-357 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.23 points per game.

In spite of their loss in Philadelphia last week, the Giants are historically very good on the road.  Since the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning in 2004, they are 55-35 ATS on the road, including 36-22 ATS as road underdogs, 16-8 ATS as divisional road underdogs, and 11-4 ATS as divisional road underdogs of 3.5 or more. The opposite is true of Dallas. The Cowboys are 12-23 ATS as home favorites since 2009, including 5-12 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 or more. This isn’t just a Dallas/NY Giants thing. NFC East teams are just 19-34 ATS as divisional home favorites since 2008.

Picking the Giants also gives us an opportunity to fade a significant line movement, as this line was 3.5 a week ago and now it’s 6.5. I understand the things that happened last week might seem worthy of a 3 point line movement, the Victor Cruz injury, the Giants’ blowout loss, the Cowboys’ win in Seattle, but I don’t think this line should have moved this much based on one week’s results. The Cowboys could easily be overconfident as favorites off of that win last week (they’re just 3-15 ATS as favorites off a win since 2010 anyway), while the Giants will be embarrassed and want to redeem themselves. I like their chances of bouncing back.

Dallas Cowboys 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6.5

Confidence: High

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