Carolina Panthers (3-2-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)

The Packers have been dominant at home over the past few seasons. Aaron Rodgers is 22-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 28-4 straight up, with an absurd +448 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.00 points per game. I like their chances of covering here at home against a Carolina team that has to be exhausted after playing essentially 5 quarters in a tie last week. Ties are rare so there isn’t a big sample size, but teams are 5-9 ATS off of a tie since 1989, including 0-5 ATS on the road, both of which make sense. I’m taking the Packers here.

Green Bay Packers 31 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: Medium

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