New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Detroit Lions (4-2)

I still believe in the Saints. They’re 9^th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a rate 81.82%, while their opponents are moving them at a 78.71%, a differential of 3.11% for the Saints. Why are they 2-3 then? Well, two of their losses came by a combined 5 points. They’ve allowed 3 return touchdowns in 5 games despite the fact that they’ve otherwise played well. They could easily be 4-1, with one loss on the road in Dallas, who is 5-1. They also have done this despite playing 3 of 5 games on the road, where they generally don’t play nearly as well as they do at home.

However, I don’t think this is the week they turn it around. I could see them losing this one and then ripping off 9 wins in their last 10 games, when they have 6 home games in 10 weeks and no really hard road game. However, going into Detroit is going to be too tough for a Saints team that has road issues. The Saints are 3-10 ATS on the road since the start of last season, as opposed to 8-1-1 ATS at home.

This Lions team is for real. While the Saints are 9^th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Lions are 8^th. They are only moving the chains at a 69.32% rate, but their opponents are moving the chains at a 64.88% rate, best in the NFL by a decent margin. That’s a differential of 4.44% over a whole percentage point better than the Saints. This line (2.5) suggests two things. One, that these two teams are equal. Two, that the Lions have a normal homefield advantage here over a poor road team. Neither of those two things are true. I know the Lions will be without Calvin Johnson, but the Saints will likely be without Jimmy Graham. I’m not that confident, but the Lions should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 23 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Detroit -2.5

Confidence: Low

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