Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)
There are reasons to take the Jaguars this week. Teams that are 0-5 or worse are 43-20 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a loss of 1-8 points. The Jaguars almost got their first win of the season last week in a two point loss in Tennessee and they should be able to carry that into this week and give themselves a shot at their first win here. The Jaguars covered in a similar spot last week, after losing just by 8 to the Steelers a week before, with Pittsburgh requiring a late pick six to even get the margin to that.
The Jaguars have been playing a lot better since Blake Bortles took over as the starting quarterback. They covered last week and probably should have covered against both the Chargers and the Steelers. Over the past 3 games, the Jaguars are moving the chains at a 71.11% rate, as opposed to 72.50%, a differential of -1.39%. That’s as opposed to the first 3 games of the season, when they were moving the chains at a 59.76% rate, as opposed to 79.83% for their opponents, a differential of 20.08%. That’s not all Blake Bortles. Their defense has been playing significantly better too and that might not be sustainable, but there’s no denying they’ve been playing better football over the past 3 weeks.
However, it’s still really tough to trust the Jaguars. Teams are 49-77 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of three of more and 23-54 ATS in that same time period before being home underdogs of four or more. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, it’s definitely the latter. The Browns are a solid team deserving of being favored by 6 points here, the most the franchise has been favored by on the road since they returned to the NFL in 1999. They are moving the chains at a 76.83% rate, as opposed to 75.14% for their opponents, a differential of 1.68%, 11th in the NFL. I’m going with the Jaguars, but I’m not confident at all.
Cleveland Browns 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6
Confidence: None
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