Houston Texans (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)

People are pretty down on the Steelers here after their loss to the Browns as the public is all over the Texans. I love fading the public, especially when the public is on the underdog. If the Texans are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why is this line 3.5? The odds makers generally have a better sense of how good teams actually are than the public. I actually think this line is too low and that it’s a trap line for people who are on the Texans. The Texans aren’t as good as their record, while the Steelers aren’t as bad as they looked last week.

The Texans are moving the chains at a 69.77% rate, as opposed to 73.53% for their opponents, a differential of -3.76% that is 25^th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Steelers are right in the middle of the pack at 16^th, moving the chains at a 74.36% rate, as opposed to 73.63% for their opponents, a differential of 0.73%. The Steelers are the significantly better team here and I like their chances of covering here, especially against a Houston team that could be divisional underdogs in Tennessee next week. Teams are 51-78 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. I’m not that confident, but the Steelers should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Houston Texans 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3.5

Confidence: Low

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