Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-4)

The Seahawks had a very disappointing loss at home to the Cowboys last week, a 30-23 game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. That was just the Seahawks 2^nd home loss since they drafted Russell Wilson in 2012. However, they generally bounce back off a loss, as good teams tend to. They are 7-2 ATS off a loss in the Russell Wilson era, dating back to 2012. They’re also in a good spot with a trip to Carolina on deck. Teams are 75-50 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and 47-29 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more (the Seahawks are currently projected to be 3.5 point favorites in Carolina).

However, the public is all over the Seahawks and I hate siding with the public. There’s not enough stuff in the Seahawks’ favor for me to be super confident in them. They also have generally been a very ordinary team this season and they’re missing key players with injury, including Bobby Wagner, Byron Maxwell, and possibly Max Unger. They are moving the chains at a 73.47% rate, as opposed to 73.08%, a differential of 0.39% that ranks 18^th in the NFL. The Rams aren’t good, moving the chains at a 73.46% rate, as opposed to 75.35% for their opponents, a differential of -1.90% that ranks 23^rd in the NFL, but we might still be getting significant line value with them. That being said, I don’t expect the Seahawks to be the 18^th best team in the NFL all season so, at the end of the day, I’m going to take the Seahawks.

Seattle Seahawks 27 St. Louis Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Seattle -7

Confidence: None

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