Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Washington Redskins (1-5)

At first glance, it looks like we’re getting line value with the Redskins. Despite the Redskins’ 1-5 record, they are 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 73.50% rate, as opposed to 71.74% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Titans are 29th at -7.00%, moving the chains at a 69.71% rate, as opposed to 76.71% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 11.5 or 12 because rate of moving the chains suggests the Redskins are an above average team.

However, that’s just because they were so dominant in one game at home against the lowly Jaguars, in which they moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, as opposed to 45.00% for the Jaguars, a differential of 39.09%, the biggest single game rate of moving the chains differential this season. If you take that out, the Redskins are moving the chains at a 70.51% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for their opponents, a differential of -4.49%, which would rank 25th in the NFL. They’re still better than their record. They could have easily won in Philadelphia and their double digit losses in Arizona and Houston weren’t quite as bad as the final score suggested. Both would have been field goal losses on the road against decent or better opponents if not for return touchdowns and blocked extra points. However, they are definitely not an above average team.

They don’t really have any business being favored by this many points (6) over anyone, except for maybe those lowly Jaguars. I’m not thrilled about taking Charlie Whitehurst and the Titans here (I was holding out hope all week that it would end up being Locker for the Titans, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be the case), but they should be the right side here. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread about a quarter of the time historically for obvious reasons.

It’s a tough trend to use as it’s such a rare case that a team that you know will most likely finish 6-10 or worse is actually favored by that many. The Redskins would have to go 6-4 or better the rest of the way to finish 7-9 or better. The Titans failed to cover as 6 point favorites over the Jaguars last year, winning by just 2, another case that is most likely relevant to that trend. Despite that, the public is still on the Redskins, possibly because they think the Redskins are significantly better than their record. I like fading the public any chance I can get, especially when it makes it sense like it does here.

Another trend is working against the Redskins as well. The Titans are in a much better spot with an easier game on deck. While the Titans host the Texans next (in game in which they will most likely be favored), the Redskins have to go to Dallas. Teams are 85-103 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, while teams are 121-88 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 94-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. As long as this line is 6 points or higher, I’m reasonably confident in the Titans.

Washington Redskins 20 Tennessee Titans 19

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Medium

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