What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	NO	162	18	11	19	12	2	0	80.36%
2	GB	143	24	9	28	4	2	2	78.77%
3	IND	187	24	14	27	13	4	0	78.44%
4	DAL	162	21	15	23	13	0	0	78.21%
5	DEN	131	23	7	32	4	0	0	78.17%
6	KC	128	16	10	24	6	2	0	77.42%
7	BAL	160	21	18	21	10	4	0	77.35%
8	CHI	152	18	9	26	13	3	0	76.92%
9	SD	145	20	14	31	3	2	0	76.74%
10	SEA	119	17	12	26	4	2	1	75.14%
11	STL	127	13	10	25	10	2	0	74.87%
12	CAR	153	16	15	33	8	1	0	74.78%
13	PIT	152	14	15	33	8	2	0	0.741071
14	SF	139	15	16	27	7	4	0	74.04%
15	NYG	151	19	7	36	13	4	0	73.91%
16	MIA	133	15	14	21	11	7	0	73.63%
17	ATL	144	19	10	31	13	6	1	72.77%
18	WAS	147	17	12	32	15	3	0	72.57%
19	CLE	124	15	10	33	5	5	0	72.40%
20	ARZ	120	12	15	31	4	1	0	72.13%
21	NE	138	17	19	33	5	4	0	71.76%
22	TB	108	13	7	25	12	3	1	71.60%
23	CIN	116	14	17	28	6	3	0	70.65%
24	PHI	127	14	13	30	14	2	0	70.50%
25	DET	131	15	16	34	10	2	0	70.19%
26	HOU	128	14	14	32	13	2	0	69.95%
27	TEN	125	13	12	35	9	3	2	69.35%
28	NYJ	131	12	14	37	12	3	0	68.42%
29	OAK	94	11	6	33	10	1	0	67.74%
30	MIN	125	10	16	36	12	3	0	66.83%
31	JAX	124	12	11	41	15	4	0	65.70%
32	BUF	123	12	16	41	11	3	1	65.22%

 

Defense

		First Downs	Touchdowns	Field Goals	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4ths	Safeties
1	DET	126	10	12	41	11	4	1	66.34%
2	IND	123	15	10	40	12	4	0	67.65%
3	BUF	142	12	18	38	12	3	0	68.44%
4	PHI	131	15	12	36	9	4	0	70.53%
5	BAL	136	10	16	29	10	5	1	70.53%
6	DEN	124	14	11	35	6	4	1	70.77%
7	WAS	130	18	12	41	6	1	0	71.15%
8	MIA	114	15	10	27	11	4	0	71.27%
9	KC	115	11	15	29	4	2	0	71.59%
10	SD	125	14	7	31	9	6	1	72.02%
11	DAL	122	15	9	28	12	4	0	72.11%
12	ARZ	118	14	9	29	11	2	0	72.13%
13	NE	146	15	17	28	14	3	0	72.20%
14	MIN	136	18	10	38	9	2	0	72.30%
15	NYJ	128	20	11	42	3	0	0	72.55%
16	JAX	149	17	16	33	7	5	0	73.13%
17	PIT	140	16	17	30	9	1	0	0.732394
18	CHI	134	17	18	21	12	4	0	73.30%
19	HOU	154	17	12	33	15	2	0	0.733906
20	CLE	137	16	10	32	8	4	1	73.56%
21	NYG	142	18	13	29	13	2	0	73.73%
22	SEA	120	15	10	29	5	1	1	74.59%
23	TEN	167	18	16	29	11	4	0	75.51%
24	ATL	155	21	18	27	12	0	0	75.54%
25	CIN	153	14	16	24	10	3	1	75.57%
26	SF	136	18	6	30	11	2	0	75.86%
27	GB	160	16	9	26	14	5	0	76.52%
28	STL	119	16	11	21	7	2	0	76.70%
29	CAR	155	23	14	24	12	2	0	77.39%
30	OAK	134	17	12	21	6	4	0	77.84%
31	NO	129	17	11	25	4	0	1	78.07%
32	TB	149	22	16	18	10	0	0	79.53%

 

Overall

1	IND	10.79%
2	DEN	7.40%
3	BAL	6.82%
4	DAL	6.10%
5	KC	5.83%
6	SD	4.72%
7	DET	3.85%
8	CHI	3.62%
9	MIA	2.36%
10	NO	2.28%
11	GB	2.25%
12	WAS	1.41%
13	PIT	0.87%
14	SEA	0.55%
15	NYG	0.18%
16	ARZ	0.00%
17	PHI	-0.03%
18	NE	-0.44%
19	CLE	-1.16%
20	SF	-1.82%
21	STL	-1.84%
22	CAR	-2.61%
23	ATL	-2.77%
24	BUF	-3.23%
25	HOU	-3.44%
26	NYJ	-4.13%
27	CIN	-4.91%
28	MIN	-5.47%
29	TEN	-6.16%
30	JAX	-7.43%
31	TB	-7.94%
32	OAK	-10.09%