San Diego Chargers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (5-1)
The Broncos have generally been very good at home in the Peyton Manning era, going 14-7 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more. That hasn’t been the case against these Chargers, who have covered in all 3 instances in Denver as 3+ point underdogs since 2012. However, it’s very possible that could be an anomaly as it’s just 3 data points. Peyton Manning has also generally been very good in nationally televised regular seasons games, going 32-15 ATS in such games since 2003, including a 42-17 blowout win over the 49ers last weekend on Sunday Night Football. Again, the Chargers beat them here in a similar Thursday Night Game last year, but that could just be an anomaly.
However, the Chargers’ recent success against the Broncos does concern me some. I’m also concerned that this line is too high. I wish this line was under a touchdown, instead of at 7.5. Denver is playing very well this season, obviously, moving the chains at a 78.17% rate, as opposed to 70.77% for their opponents, a differential of 7.40% that ranks 2nd in the NFL behind Indianapolis. However, the Chargers are also playing very well, moving the chains at a 76.74% rate, as opposed to 72.02% for their opponents, a differential of 4.72% that ranks 6th in the NFL. This line should be closer to 5.5 than 7.5. Brandon Flowers is out for the Chargers, which really hurts them as he’s the biggest reason by far that their defense has been significantly better this season, but I still wish it was under a touchdown. I’m taking the Broncos, but I’m not confident.
Denver Broncos 30 San Diego Chargers 20
Pick against spread: Denver -7.5
Confidence: Low
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