Green Bay Packers (5-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)

The Saints have been incredible at home over the past few years. They are 32-11 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 17-1-1 ATS at home over their last 19 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 18 of those games by an average of about 19.5 points per game, with just four being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. The Saints are also 12-3 ATS in home night games since 2006. Meanwhile, the Packers haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home recently. Since 2009, the Packers are 37-9 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.19 points per game. On the other hand, they are 28-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.94 points per game, a difference of about 8 points per game.

The Packers represent a much tougher than average opponent, but this line is still too low at 1. The Packers rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, which is impressive, but not as good as their record as they’ve been overly reliant on a +10 turnover margin and a fumble recovery rate of 56.25%. They are moving the chains at a 78.77% rate, as opposed to 76.52% for their opponents, a differential of 2.25%. The Saints, meanwhile, move the chains at an 80.36% rate, as opposed to 78.07% for their opponents, a differential of 2.28% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The reason they are 2-4, while the Packers are 5-2 is because they’re getting killed in the turnover battle (-8 in turnovers, -2 in return touchdowns, 18.18% fumble recovery) and because they have 3 losses by a combined 6 points.

They rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential despite the fact that they’ve played 4 of 6 on the road which represent all their losses. In two home games, they’ve move the chains at an 85.00% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents, a differential of 13.00%. New Orleans is also getting Jimmy Graham to full strength back after he essentially missed 2 games (he went out early against Tampa Bay and barely played against Detroit).

Despite their records, these two teams are more comparable than you’d think and the Saints might actually be better. This line should be at least 3, even before you get into the Saints’ home dominance. On top of all that, Drew Brees is 20-5 ATS off a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, including 15-2 ATS at home. The Packers are also public underdogs, in case you need another reason to take the Saints. I usually like to fade the public whenever it makes sense as the odds makers always come out on top, but I especially like fading the public when they’re on an underdog. If the Packers are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why do the odds makers have them as favorites? I could easily see the Saints winning by at least a touchdown.

The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Saints have Carolina 4 days after this one on Thursday Night Football. Teams are just 34-56 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night football. Teams are also 86-105 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs on any day of the week since 2002. However, the Saints are barely favored here and they should be able to be completely focused on this one even with that game on the horizon because they’re coming off a loss, facing a 5-2 opponent, and will feel like they need this game to save their season. I really like the Saints this week.

New Orleans Saints 34 Green Bay Packers 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -1

Confidence: High

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