Houston Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (2-5)

The Texans are road favorites here, but they could easily be home underdogs next week when they host the Eagles. Road favorites are 76-118 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs, including 18-27 ATS as divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs, as that upcoming game tends to be a major distraction. Even if that game has an even line (as the early line currently is) or the Texans are favored by 1-2 points, the logic still stands.

We’re also getting some line value with the Titans because the Texans aren’t as good as their 3-3 record suggests, as they move the chains at a 69.95% rate, as opposed to 73.39% for their opponents, a differential of -3.44% that ranks 25^th in the NFL. The Titans aren’t good, moving the chains at a 69.35% rate, as opposed to 75.51% for their opponents, a differential of 6.16% that ranks 29^th in the NFL, but the Texans shouldn’t be favored by a field goal on the road against anyone other than Oakland.

I’m not that confident in Tennessee because they’re starting unproven 6^th round rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback. It’s possible he’s an upgrade over Charlie Whitehurst, who has started the last few games for them, but he’s a complete wild card and the track record of late round rookies starting at quarterback isn’t great. It’s very possible Mettenberger is head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s next Ryan Lindley. The Titans should be the right side though.

Houston Texans 17 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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