Miami Dolphins (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Jaguars are in a bad spot, having to go to Cincinnati next week where they will almost certainly be double digit underdogs (the early line is 11). Teams are 40-81 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s both in this situation.

The Jaguars rank just 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.70% rate, as opposed to 73.13% for their opponents, a differential of -7.43%. They have covered just 8 of their last 24 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 24 games, they lost 15 of them by double digits and could easily make it 16 this week against a solid Miami team. The Dolphins are moving the chains at a 73.63% rate, as opposed to 71.27% for their opponents, a differential of 2.36% that ranks 9^th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around a touchdown, which gives us a little bit of line value with Miami -6.

On the other hand, the Jaguars have been playing much better football of late. Blake Bortles has proven to be an upgrade over Chad Henne at quarterback (which isn’t hard) and head coach Gus Bradley, the ex-Seahawks defensive coordinator, has this defense playing a lot better recently. They haven’t lost by double digits in any of their last 3 games (which is an accomplishment for this franchise) and they dominated a decent Browns team last week.

Over the past 4 games, since benching Henne, they are moving the chains at a 69.60% rate, as opposed to 65.74% for their opponents, a differential of 3.86%. That’s much better than their first 3 games, when they moved the chains at a 59.76% rate, as opposed to 79.83% for their opponents, a differential of -20.08%. On top of that, the Dolphins have a much tougher game next week against the Chargers back in Miami, where they could easily be home underdogs. Non-divisional road favorites are 22-40 since 1989 before being non-divisional home underdogs, as that upcoming game tends to be a major distraction. Even if that game has an even line (as the early line currently is) or the Dolphins are favored by 1-2 points, the logic still stands. I’m taking the Dolphins, but I’m not confident at all.

Miami Dolphins 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Miami -6

Confidence: None

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