Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (5-1)

I’m not happy that these two teams are playing each other because I think they’re two of the most overrated teams in football. Neither is as good as their record and yet one will advance to 6-1, though I guess that’ll make for easier betting situations in the future. The Eagles are 5-1 on the strength of a +6 margin in return touchdowns and a 3-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. It’s hard to rely on those things long-term. In terms of pure rate of moving the chains, they are 17^th in differential, moving the chains at a 70.50% rate, as opposed to 70.53% for their opponents. Their defense has surprisingly held together well and their offense will get better when they get Jason Kelce and Evan Mathis back from injury, as those are two of the best offensive linemen in football, but for right now they’re nowhere near as good as their record.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been overly reliant on a +7 turnover margin and a 63.64% rate of recovering fumbles. They are moving the chains at a 72.13% rate, as opposed to 72.13% for their opponents, a differential of +0.00% that ranks 16^th in the NFL. Unlike the Eagles, they probably aren’t going to get much better. While Calais Campbell should return from injury soon (maybe in a limited role this week) and Tyrann Mathieu will only get healthier, they are still missing Karlos Dansby, John Abraham, Daryl Washington, and Darnell Dockett from last year’s 10-6 team for a variety of reasons. However, for right now, these two teams are basically even, as this line suggests, though probably not even in the way many people seem to think.

That being said, the Eagles should be the right side as they’re in the better situation, with a non-conference trip to Houston on deck, while the Cardinals have to play fellow 1-loss Dallas next week in Dallas. Teams are 71-103 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Eagles aren’t necessarily going to be road favorites in Houston next week (the early line is even), but if they are, that brings a very powerful trend into the mix. Going off of that, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 36-12 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being road favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs.

Even if the Eagles end up being even or 1 point underdogs in Houston, the logic is still there. They’re going to be able to be way more focused for this one than the Cardinals. There are two reasons this isn’t a bigger play. The first reason is because we don’t know for sure if the Eagles will be road favorites next week. The second reason is that the Cardinals have been very solid at home recently, going 26-14 ATS at home since 2007 as underdogs of favorites of 3 or more. The Eagles should still be the right side though.

Philadelphia Eagles 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: Low

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